US: House Expected To Vote On Funding Bill To End DHS Shutdown Today

Canadian GDP by industry came basically in line with expectations and the advance estimate, rising 0.07% M/M vs StatCan's early estimate of "essentially unchanged" output, and 0.24% prior. February's advance reading is for 0.2% growth, which would bring 3M/3M (ie quarterly) annualized growth to 1.2%. That means that with a flat pace in March, real GDP by industry would print 1.5% for the 1st quarter, not far off but still below the Bank of Canada's 1.8% overall GDP projection in the January MPR.

• January's industry-by-industry performance showed a large pullback in manufacturing (-1.4% M/M) and wholesale trade (-1.2%), offset by a solid 0.8% rise in retail - dynamics which were no surprise given sales readings in those categories. Helping keep the overall reading from turning negative were strong gains in construction (+1.1%) and mining (+1.2%, driven by oil and gas extraction, after a 1.0% contraction in December).
• Looking forward to February, StatCan anticipates as part of the 0.2% advance growth estimate "Increases in manufacturing, in the mining, quarrying and support services subsector and in finance and insurance were partially offset by decreases in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting."
• That looks a reasonable assessment, looking purely at monthly sales data. January's downturn in manufacturing/wholesaling was in large part due to idiosyncratic auto sector disruptions and bad weather which will have reversed in February. Manufacturing sales growth is estimated to have rebounded to +3.8% M/M in February after -3.0% in January, on rises in "transportation equipment and food subsectors". This reflects a recovery in shipments after auto sector disruptions in January. Likewise, advance wholesale sales (excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain) rose 2.3%.
• Momentum in retail sales appeared to carry on in February, with an advance estimate of 0.9% M/M growth for headline sales. That would be enough to bring the 3M/3M annualized growth rate up to 5.0%, the highest since February 2025 and well up from the recent trough (-1.0% in November).

• GBP: Very notable GBP weakness heading into the month-end WMR fix, with GBPUSD declining roughly 80 pips ahead of the window, eroding the entirety of the day’s advance in the process, before bouncing post-fix. Sterling supply very evident in the cross, as EURGBP rises back above 0.8700 and prints a fresh 4-week high at 0.8742.
• CHF: The extension of Swiss Franc weakness continues to standout, with EURCHF rising to the highest level since January 23 at 0.9265. As a reminder, the next target is at 0.9298, the 76.4% retracement of the Dec 8 - Mar 9 bear leg.

The New York Post reports that in a phone call with US President Donald Trump on 31 March, the President said, “We’re not going to be there too much longer. We’re obliterating the s–t out of them right now, it’s a total obliteration...But we won’t have to be there much longer — but we have more work to do in terms of killing their offensive, whatever offensive capability they have left.”

• Trump reiterated his statement that other countries can look to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, claiming, “Well, I think it’ll automatically open, but my attitude is, I’ve obliterated the country. They have no strength left, and let the countries that are using the strait, let them go and open it… because I would imagine whoever’s controlling the oil will be very happy to open the strait".
• Asked on WSJ reports that Trump could end the war without reopening the Strait, Trump said, “I don’t think about it, to be honest. My sole function was to make sure that they don’t have a nuclear weapon. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. When we leave the strait will automatically open.”
• Regarding talks with Iran, Trump claimed the new leadership are "much more reasonable than previous, much more reasonable. And that is truly regime change.”
• Trump refused to answer when asked whether VP JD Vance and special envoy Steve Witkoff could be dispatched to engage in direct talks in Islamabad, and whether the US will engage in ground operations.