US DATA: Hours Worked Paint A Less Negative Picture
May-02 14:18
- One thing that is worth emphasizing in the April payrolls report is the beat for average weekly hours worked, to 34.3 (cons 34.2) from an upward revised 34.3 in March (initial 34.2) for a second monthly upward revision.
- It has left a reversal from 34.1 in Jan (joint lowest with Mar 2020 otherwise lows since 2010 in GFC recovery) on particularly adverse weather before 34.2 in Feb and then two months at 34.3.
- These are still low historically (pre-pandemic range primarily 34.4-34.5 but with a few 34.3 and 34.6 readings) but it tentatively sees a second month without signs of companies further tamping down on costs via hours offered.
- One sector particularly of note here is the broad “trade, transportation and utilities” category which has seen a 0.5hr increase to 34.3hrs since January, 0.3 of which came in April. There have been large increases for most of the categories within it such as wholesale trade, retail trade and transportation & warehousing.
- As noted earlier, transportation & warehousing saw a strong uptick in payrolls growth in April. The combination suggests little sign of immediate adverse impacts from tariffs, with likely the opposite as tariff front-running has seen surge in imports and inventories. It's an area that will we watched closely ahead.
- Back to hours worked more broadly, the move off recent, likely weather-induced, lows for hours worked also follows a bottoming in quits rates in Nov-Dec 2024.
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STIR: BLOCK: Jun'25 SOFR Call Spread
Apr-02 14:18
- 6,000 SFRM5 96.12/96.50 call spds, 3.5 ref 95.915 at 1011:37ET, adds to earlier Block at 3.75
STIR: STIR Option Update
Apr-02 14:11
SOFR option trade remains mixed, underlying futures retreating (Whites -0.020-0.030) while projected rate cuts through mid-2025 continue to cool vs. late Tuesday levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -4.7bp (-5.3bp), Jun'25 at -20.1bp (-22.1bp), Jul'25 at -36.4bp (-39.1bp), Sep'25 -53.4bp (-56.6bp).
- +10,000 2QK5 96.00/96.25/96.50 1x3x2 put flys, 2.0 ref 96.62
- +6,000 SFRZ5/0QZ5 97.00/98.00 call spd spd, 8.0 net conditional flattener
BUNDS: Block trade
Apr-02 14:03
Bund block trade, suggest seller:
- RXM5 3.4k at 129.42.
