IRAN: Hormuz Protocol w/Oman In Final Stages; No Passage For US/Israel & Backers

• RES 4: 1.3929 High Jan 16 and a reversal trigger     
• RES 3: 1.3845 High Jan 22
• RES 2: 1.3800 High Jan 23  
• RES 1: 1.3732 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 1.3727 @ 14:53 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 1.3625/3556 Low Feb 27 / 12
• SUP 2: 1.3482 Low Jan 30 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 1.3420 Low Sep 25 ‘24
• SUP 4: 1.3400 50.0% retracement of the 2021 - 2025 uptrend

USDCAD is testing key short-term resistance at 1.3725, the Feb 6 and 24 high. A clear breach of this hurdle would highlight a potential reversal and suggest scope for a stronger short-term bull phase. This would open 1.3800 initially, the Jan 23 high. For now, the medium-term trend structure remains bearish - moving average studies continue to highlight a dominant downtrend. The bear trigger lies at 1.3482, the Jan 30 low.

Put buyers stepping up after heavy unwinds overnight. Underlying futures weaker but off lows while projected rate cut pricing holds near recent lows, current vs. late Monday (*): Mar'26 at -.5bp, Apr'26 at -3.1bp (-4.1bp), Jun'26 at -9.8bp (-12.6bp), Jul'26 at -16.6bp (-21.6bp), Sep'26 at -26.6bp (-33.6bp).

• over +62,000 SFRJ6 96.31 put, 0.75-1.0
• Block/pit, 17,000 SFRJ6 96.31/96.37 2x1 put spds, 0.0-.25 net
• +46,000 SFRU6 96.25/96.43/96.62/96.75 put condors, 3.5
• +30,000 0QJ6 96.50 puts, 2.0 vs. 96.86/0.10%
• 10,000 SFRH7 96.50 puts, 15.5 ref 96.81

• RES 4: 0.7208 61.8% of the Feb 25 ‘21 - Apr 9 ‘25 bear leg   
• RES 3: 0.7186 2.236 proj of the Nov 21 - Dec 10 - 18 price swing
• RES 2: 0.7158 High Feb 2 2023
• RES 1: 0.7147 High Feb 12 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6988 @ 14:46 GMT Mar 3
• SUP 1: 0.6981 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 0.6920 50-day EMA and key support
• SUP 3: 0.6897 Low Feb 6
• SUP 4: 0.6834 Low Jan 23

The AUDUSD trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish and for now, today’s sell-off appears corrective. Note that the moving average set-up is in a bull mode position and this still highlights a dominant uptrend.  Key support to monitor is around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6920. A clear break of the average would alter the picture. On the upside the key resistance and bull trigger is unchanged at 0.7147, the Feb 12 high