US: Historical Data Suggests 90-Day Deadline For Trade Deals Is Optimistic
The New York Times reports that the 90-day deadline that the Trump administration has set itself to negotiate a raft of trade deals, “is a tenth of the time it usually takes to reach a trade deal.”
- The Times notes: “It typically takes 917 days, or roughly two and a half years, for a trade deal to go from initial talks to the president’s desk for signature, the analysis shows... Roughly 60 days into the current process, Mr. Trump has so far announced only one deal: a pact with Britain, which is not one of America’s biggest trading partners.”
- The report notes: "The Times analysis used the date from the start of negotiations to the date when the president signed to determine the length of deal making for each major agreement dating back to 1985 that’s currently in effect. The median time it took to get to the president’s signature was just over 900 days."
Figure 1: “It takes years to close a typical trade deal. How do the current talks compare?”
Source: New York Times
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US DATA: March Trade Deficit Blowout On Pharma Front-Running
Final March trade data confirmed a new record (nominal) deficit and the largest on a relative basis since 2005/06 in the imbalances ahead of the Great Financial Crisis. However, pharmaceutical tariff front-running and continued heavy imports of gold are greatly clouding interpretation of underlying trends.
- The goods & services trade deficit was larger than expected in final March data, at $140.5bn (cons 137.2bn) after a slightly upward revised $123.2bn (initial $122.7bn) in Feb. It exceeds the $130.7bn in Jan.
- It came as the goods deficit confirmed a new record high of $163.5bn (larger again than the $162.0bn in the advance release) whilst the new data on the services surplus fell from $23.8bn in Feb to $23.0bn in Mar for the smallest surplus since Apr 2023.
- Of course, these are nominal figures whereas a better historical comparison is in % GDP terms. Here, and looking on a 3mth basis to smooth the data out, the goods deficit confirmed its widening to 6.2% GDP (last larger, and only just, in the 2005/06 imbalances before the GFC) whilst the services surplus held at 1.0% GDP as has broadly been the case since mid-2021.
- Pharmaceutical products, a point of contention for the Trump administration, were behind the 28% surge in consumer goods imports, attributing $20.9bn of the $22.5bn monthly increase.
- Specifically, pharma imports increased from $29.5bn to $50.4bn (71% M/M, and vs an average $20.5bn in 2024). That mostly tallied to a $15.5bn increase in imports from Ireland at $30.7bn – see the below chart for just how unprecedented this is in likely front-running ahead of previously touted pharmaceutical tariffs.
- Imports of monetary gold were off highs from Jan & Feb but still unsurprisingly had an outsized impact, with imports of finished metal shapes worth $21.3bn in March. That’s compared to $31.7bn in Feb and $34.2bn in Jan but an average of just $4bn in 2024. Comex inventories imply a significant moderation in this category in April.
GBPUSD TECHS: Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 1.3605 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: 1.3550 High Feb 24 ‘22
- RES 2: 1.3510 1.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 1: 1.3444 High Apr 28 / 29
- PRICE: 1.3363 @ 16:44 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 1.3257 Low May 5
- SUP 2: 1.3232 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.3041/3045 Low Apr 14 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 1.2968 Low Apr 11
The latest pullback in GBPUSD appears corrective. A tweezer top formation on the daily candle chart last Monday/Tuesday, highlights a short-term top. Firm support at 1.3232, the 20-day EMA, remains intact. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, signalling a dominant underlying uptrend. A resumption of gains would open 1.3510, a Fibonacci projection.
US LABOR MARKET: MNI US Employment Insight: Another Month Of Resilience
- We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Employment Insight.
- Please find the full report including MNI analysis: https://media.marketnews.com/US_Employment_Report_May2025_1306f78f63.pdf
