IRAN: Hezbollah Wouldn't Join War If US Carries Out Limited Strike On Iran - AFP

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Sky News reports that the Gorton and Denton parliamentary by-election will take place on Thursday, 26 Feb. The election for the seat on the outskirts of Greater Manchester comes following the retirement of Andrew Gwynne on health grounds late last week. The aftermath of Gwynne's resignation has further exposed fissures within the governing centre-left Labour Party. Mayor of Greater Manchester Andy Burnham had his attempt to stand as the Labour candidate in the seat turned down by Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC) over the weekend. 

• In an 8-1 vote, the NEC claimed that allowing Burnham to stand would trigger a snap election for the Manchester mayoralty, both costing the party money in campaign costs and risking the loss of control of one of the UK's most populous cities.
• Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell, seen as being on the left of the party, was the only NEC member to vote in favour of Burnham being permitted to seek the Labour nomination. Politico reports that around 50 Labour MPs have signed a letter criticising the blocking of Burnham's candidacy. The Manchester metro mayor is viewed as a potential leadership challenger to PM Sir Keir Starmer, who is dealing with record-low approval ratings.

Without the well-known regional figure Burnham running, the Gorton & Denton by-election is likely to develop into a three-way contest between Labour, the right-wing populist Reform UK and the left-wing populist Green Party. Data from betting exchange Betfair shows bettors assigning a 39% implied probability that Reform UK will win the seat, with the Greens in second on 36%, and Labour in third with a 25% implied probability.

• Created in the boundary review prior to the 2024 general election, Gwynne won the seat for Labour with a majority of 13,413 with 50.8% of the vote. The three seats that were merged to form the seat were all held long-term by Labour. The right-wing Reform UK came in second place in Gorton and Denton in 2024, with 14.1% of the vote. Gwynne lost the Labour whip in Feb 2025 after offensive messages about voters posted in a WhatsApp group were made public.
• Starmer remains in a difficult position. Should Labour go on to lose the by-election, there will be claims that by stopping a popular and well-known figure from running he actively damaged his own party's chances of holding the seat. If Labour wins, Burnham's supporters and other leftists in the Labour ranks will claim that the PM opposed Burnham's candidacy because he was scared of a possible leadership challenge.