US NATGAS: Henry Hubs Edges Down from Highest Since March
Henry Hub front month edges lower but set for a net weekly gain after reaching the highest since March at $4.42/mmbtu.
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Oct. 31 showed a build of 33 bcf compared to the seasonal five-year average of 42 bcf. Total stocks are up to 3,915 bcf, 6 bcf below last year and 162 bcf above the 5-yr avg.
- LNG terminal feedgas is today estimated 767 mmcf/d higher at 17.48 bcf/d with a partial recovery to Corpus Christi. Flows compare to a record high of 17.84 bcf/d on Oct. 31 and an average of 17.1 bcf/d so far this month.
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is estimated 3.0 bcf/d lower today at 77.04 bcf/d compared with the 30-day average of 74.7 bcf/d and five-year seasonal average around 70.8 bcf/d, Bloomberg shows.
- Above normal average Lower 48 temperatures are forecast to briefly drop below normal early next week before a return to warm weather from around Nov. 12. NOAA shows below normal in the East in the 6-10 day period but above normal in western and central areas spreading eastwards in the 8-14 day period. The GFS 6z 15day is 23 HDD lower and less than 1 CDD lower nationally.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated 364 mmcf/d lower today at 109.96 bcf/d but remains strong with an average of 110.55 bcf/d so far this month, according to BNEF.
- Export flows to Mexico are estimated 70 mmcf/d higher today at 6.53 bcf/d, but remain below the 30-day average of 6.71, BNEF shows.
- Nymex Henry Hub daily aggregate traded futures volume was 590k on Nov. 6.
- US Natgas DEC 25 down 0.8% at 4.32$/mmbtu
- US Natgas JAN 26 down 0.5% at 4.55$/mmbtu
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MNI EXCLUSIVE: Italian government officials discuss the outlook for growth
Italian government officials discuss the outlook for growth and the impact of a strong euro.- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
GERMANY: Government Upwardly Revises GDP Projection
German growth will be 0.2% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.4% in 2027 according to the autumn economic projections of the German Economy ministry. These represent upwards revisions from 0.1% and 0.8% for 2025 and 2026 respectively in the last (spring) projection.
- Government expenditure is seen rising 6.1% Y/Y in 2025, 5.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. These figures are clearly higher than where they stood in the spring projection (which was published on 24 April, so after parts but not all of the recent fiscal expansion were passed in parliament) and may thus drive a decent part of the overall more optimistic growth outlook.
- Full release here: https://www.bundeswirtschaftsministerium.de/Redaktion/DE/Downloads/E/eckwerte-der-herbstprojektion-2025.pdf
- Economy minster Reiche is speaking currently: https://www.youtube.com/live/3uV77lKiqg4
- A reminder that yesterday, the fiscal projection of the German "Stability Council" found that "the Maastricht debt ratio could rise to around 80.25% of GDP by the end of the projection period in 2029" in Germany. This compares with a realised debt ratio
of 62.5% of GDP in 2024.
BUND TECHS: (Z5) Clears Resistance
- RES 4: 129.50 High Aug 5
- RES 3: 129.58 61.8% retracement of the Jun 13 - Sep 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 129.44 High Sep 10 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 129.07 76.4% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg
- PRICE: 128.97 @ 13:24 BST Oct 8
- SUP 1: 128.25/127.88 Low Oct 7 / Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 127.61 Low Sep 3 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 127.46 1.00 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 127.13 1.236 proj of the Aug 14 - 15 - 28 price swing
Bund futures have rallied sharply higher today and in the process cleared initial resistance at 128.84, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 10 - 25 bear leg. The breach signals scope for a stronger recovery and potentially exposes key resistance at 129.44, the Sep 10 high. The next resistance is 129.07, the 76.4% retracement. The Oct 7 low of 128.25, has been defined as a key short-term support.
