US NATGAS: Henry Hub Midday Update

Penultimate day JAN26 NG futures see prices rise slightly on end-of-December cold forecasts and bullish storage outlook that will be printed on Dec. 29

• JAN 26 is trading at $4.351, up 2.57% on the day.
• FEB 26 is trading at $3.868, up 2.87% on the day.
• Intraday front month volume on NYMEX is about 17,000 lots, nearly equivalent to Dec. 24 reportable positions as traders roll positions on pen day.
• Forecasts shifted colder across the North and West for Dec. 31-Jan. 4: Atmospheric G2: “The latest models are in reasonably good agreement with the idea of a reinforcing Arctic chill into portions of the northern and eastern US through the middle to end of next week.”
• The Bloomberg survey shows inventories probably falling 169 Bcf for the week ending Dec. 19, compared to the five-year normal of a 110-Bcf withdrawal. WSJ projects the same number, while NGI predicts 170 Bcf. A draw of this size over the five-year normal will flip the storage surplus above the five-year normal to a deficit.
• MNI feedgas data show demand at 18.18 Bcf/d today, down slightly from the previous day.
• BNEF estimates lower 48 dry gas production at 113.26 Bcf/d, down from the previous day of 113.52 Bcf/d.
• U.S. dry gas consumption is estimated at 87.62 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 84.59 Bcf/d.
• Pipeline exports to Mexico were estimated at 5.60 Bcf/d, up from the previous day of 5.48 Bcf/d.