US: Harris' Recalibration Of Presidential Race Could Bring Florida Into Play
Aug-14 18:17
The first USA Today/Suffolk University presidential election survey of the cycle in Florida has found Vice President Kamala Harris is within “striking distance” of former President Donald Trump in the state.
- USA Today notes: “Trump leads Harris by 5 percentage points in the survey, but that’s closer than other recent polls… It’s also within the poll’s 4.4% margin of error...”
- Florida, once considered the country’s largest swing state, has been trending towards the GOP with a Trump 3.3% win in 2020 and Governor Ron DeSantis’ dominant 19% win in 2022.
- Considering the state now has 1 million more registered Republicans than Democrats, the apparently tight race suggests that Harris’ resurgent campaign could be driving a broader Democrat recovery to somewhere in line with Biden’s successful 2020 campaign.
- Semafor notes: “Trump is more popular than he’s been in Florida at this point in any of his races; DeSantis is slightly more popular. The outlier is [Senator Rick] Scott [R-FL], who has never won a race by more than 2 percentage points..."
- If Democrats can make the Florida Senate race competitive, it would expand their 2024 map to include a potential pickup opportunity. Currently, the race for control of the Senate is favouring the GOP as Democrats are certain to lose West Virginia and Senator Jon Tester (D-MO) is expected to have to outperform Harris by double-digits in Montana to hold his seat. Bringing Florida into play could open a second pathway for retaining the chamber.
Figure 1: Florida Favourability Ratings
Source: Semafor
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PIPELINE: $3.25B RBC 3Pt, $2.5B BNY 4Pt, $2.25B PEP 3Pt Debt Launched
Jul-15 18:11
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 7/15 $3.25B #RBC $1.25B 3NC2 +63, $700M 3NC2 SOFR+79, $1.3B 6NC5 +85
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- 7/15 $Benchmark JP Morgan 4NC3 +75, 4NC3 SOFR+93, 6NC5 +87, 11NC10 +107
- 7/15 $600M *NongHyup Bank $300M 3Y SOFR+80, $300M 5Y +68
- 7/15 $500M #Aircastle 7Y +165
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices
Jul-15 17:57
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Jul-16 0830 New York Fed Services Business Activity (-4.7, --)
- Jul-16 0830 Retail Sales Advance MoM (0.1%, -0.3%)
- Jul-16 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (-0.1%, 0.1%)
- Jul-16 0830 Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (0.1%, 0.3%)
- Jul-16 0830 Retail Sales Control Group (0.4%, 0.2%)
- Jul-16 0830 Import Price Index MoM (-0.4%, -0.2%), YoY (1.1%, 1.1%)
- Jul-16 0830 Import Price Index ex Petroleum MoM (-0.3%, -0.1%)
- Jul-16 0830 Export Price Index MoM (-0.6%, -0.1%), YoY (0.6%, --)
- Jul-16 1000 Business Inventories(0.3%, 0.5%)
- Jul-16 1000 NAHB Housing Market Index (43, 43)
- Jul-16 1130 US Tsy $70B 42D CMB bill auction
- Jul-16 1445 Fed Gov Kugler NABE conf (text, Q&A)
SECURITY: Israel Remains Committed To Ceasefire, US State Dept
Jul-15 17:50
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller has told reporters that Israel is "still committed to reaching a ceasefire," despite concerns conveyed by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, "about recent civilian casualties in Gaza."
- Miller says Blinken, Israeli Minister of Strategic Affairs, Ron Dermer, and Head of the Israeli National Security Council, Tzachi Hanegbi, met on Monday to discuss the latest on ceasefire negotiations.
- Miller adds: "We believe the remaining issues between Israel and Hamas on a ceasefire deal are issues that can be solved."
- Comes after Reuters reported on July 13: "Gaza ceasefire talks have been halted after three days of intense negotiations failed to produce a viable outcome, two Egyptian security sources said on Saturday, blaming Israel for lacking a genuine intent to reach agreement."
- On recent Israeli strikes, Miller says: "Israel has the right to target militants, but that does not justify attacks on civilians."
- Barak Ravid at Axios reports: "U.S. ambassador to Israel Jack Lew says in a briefing to the Jewish community in the U.S. that while it is not confirmed, there are indications that Israel managed to kill the commander of Hamas' military wing Mohammed Def."
- Ravid adds: "The Israeli security cabinet will convene tomorrow and discuss the Gaza hostage and ceasefire deal, an Israeli official says."
