BRAZIL: Haddad Confident Income Tax Exemption Proposal Will Be Maintained

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8769 Intraday high
• PRICE: 0.8680 @ 19:41 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 0.8666/46 Low Jul 28 / 20- day EMA
• SUP 2: 0.8576 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP was challenged Monday, however the broader picture remains bullish. Last week’s climb reinforces this theme. A price sequence of higher highs and higher lows is intact and note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The cross has breached key resistance at 0.8738, the Apr 11 high, strengthening a bull theme. Sights are on 0.8781, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at 0.8646, the 20-day EMA.  

• RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 01 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 1.3689 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
• RES 2: 1.3627 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.3589 High Jul 24
• PRICE: 1.3355 @ 19:33 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.3352 Intraday low
• SUP 2: 1.3335 Low May 20
• SUP 3: 1.3245 Low May 19
• SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle   

GBPUSD has slipped further below last week’s high and remained soft into the Monday close. The bear trigger at 1.3365, the Jul 16 low, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the downleg that started Jul 1. Monday’s moves open 1.3335 initially, the May 20 low. Note that a break of 1.3365 would also confirm a breach of the trendline drawn from the Jan 13 low - cancelling a false break scenario. Key short-term resistance is at 1.3589, the Jul 24 high.              

• RES 4: 1.1923 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1917 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 2: 1.1851 High Sep 10 2021 
• RES 1: 1.1749/1829 High Jul 24 / 01 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.1591 @ 19:30 BST Jul 28
• SUP 1: 1.1585 Low Jul 28
• SUP 2: 1.1559/57 50-day EMA / Low Jul 17
• SUP 3: 1.1446 Low Jun 19
• SUP 4: 1.1405 Low Jun 11  

EURUSD traded sharply lower Monday, posting the largest one-day downmove since November last year. This puts price further through support at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1684. The next key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 1.1559. A clear break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. Note that medium-term trend indicators continue to highlight a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1829, the Jul 1 high and the bull trigger.