US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Challenging Bearish M/T Condition
- RES 4: 112-31 High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg
- RES 2: 112-22 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 112-19 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 112-16+ @ 17:34 GMT Feb 10
- SUP 1: 111-29/09 20-day EMA / Low Jan 20 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 111-00 Round number support
- SUP 3: 110-30+ 1.618 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
- SUP 4: 110-22+ 1.764 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 5 - 25 price swing
A sharp rally in Treasuries last Thursday helped clear out resistance on the rally to 112-16+, and prices have gained again Tuesday, topping out at 112-19. Much of this week’s strength comes off the back of the break of the 20- and 50-day EMAs, with 112-22 the next notable resistance. This week’s price action challenges the bearish M/T condition - and only a reversal lower here and break of 111-09, the Jan 20 low, can resume the bear cycle.
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AUSSIE 3-YEAR TECHS: (H6) Recovery Mode
- RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
- RES 2: 96.780 - High Jun 26 (cont)
- RES 1: 96.700 - High Sep 12
- PRICE: 95.890 @ 16:40 GMT Jan 9
- SUP 1: 95.740 - Low Dec 22
- SUP 2: 95.480 - Low 1st Nov ‘23
- SUP 3: 94.932 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
Prices bounced again Thursday, supported by strength in global bond markets and a smoother inflation picture at the December CPI print. As such, prices edged further away from recent lows. Nonetheless, slower pricing for additional RBA easing - and partial pricing for a return to rate hikes in 2026 - should keep the front-end of the curve under pressure. This keeps prices well below prior resistance at 96.615, the Sep 12 high, and refocuses attention on 95.480 as the next major support.
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MNI: MNI Test, Please Ignore
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