US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H6) Bull Cycle Intact
Feb-11 17:05
- RES 4: 113-04 76.4% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg
- RES 3: 112-31 High Dec 18 and key short-term resistance
- RES 2: 112-25 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg
- RES 1: 112-20 Intraday high
- PRICE: 112-12 @ 16:51 GMT Feb 11
- SUP 1: 112-00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-26 Low Feb 9
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Feb 3
- SUP 4: 111-09 Low Jan 20 and the bear trigger
Treasuries are holding on to their latest gains, despite an intraday dip on the back of the stronger-than-expected NFP data. This week’s rally has strengthened the short-term bullish condition. A continuation higher here would pave the way for a move towards 112-25 next, the 61.8% retracement of the Nov 25 - Jan 20 bear leg. Clearance of this price point would open 112-31, the Dec 18 high. Initial support to watch lies at 112-00, the 20-day EMA. A break of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
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UK: Week Ahead
Jan-12 17:04
- This week sees speeches from MPC members Governor Bailey (delivery Tuesday, text published Friday), Taylor and Ramsden (both Wednesday) as well as monthly activity data as the highlights.
- Governor Bailey is due to speak on Tuesday at the Bellagio Group (in an event hosted by Deputy Governor Lombardelli). The text from his appearance will be published at 10:00GMT on Friday (previously the event wasn’t listed on the Bank’s website). It seems unlikely there will be anything regarding near-term monetary policy in his speech (given the delay between the speech being delivered and the text being released).
- Neither Taylor nor Ramsden’s speeches appear to be specific to monetary policy: Taylor is due to give a speech on “Driving over the peak – or a false summit” (text at 8:00GMT) – but even if this touches on monpol he is known to be a dove so this would not impact the market.
- Ramsden is giving a speech entitled “The evolution of resolution” – he is Deputy Governor for Markets and Banking so this appears to sit in the non-monpol part of his remit (text is due for release at 15:30GMT)
- Looking at the economic data, overnight saw the release of the KPMG-REC Report on Jobs (more softening of the quantities side of the labour market). Overnight tonight will see the release of BRC Shop Sales data (the survey period for which lines up with ONS retail sales) and this follows soft footfall in December in last week’s BRC survey. The main data of the week will be monthly activity data for November. Given the lag in this data, we think that it needs to be a pretty sizeable surprise to have any near-term impact on monetary policy. Looking at the Bloomberg survey, there appear to be two-way risks to a 0.1%M/M print for monthly GDP.
MNI: USDA: 2025/2026 CORN PRODUCTION EST 17.02B BSL
Jan-12 17:00
- MNI: USDA: 2025/2026 CORN PRODUCTION EST 17.02B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 CORN YIELD EST 186.50 BSL/ACRE
- USDA: 2025/2026 SOYBEAN PRODUCTION EST 4.26B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 SOYBEAN YIELD EST 53.00 BSL/ACRE
- USDA: 2025/2026 WHEAT PRODUCTION EST 1.98B BSL
- USDA: 2025/2026 WHEAT YIELD EST 53.30 BSL/ACRE
US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 3Y Note Auction
Jan-12 16:36
- Treasury futures hold modestly weaker (TUH6 104-07.25, -.25, 1TYH6 -3 at 112-04) after the $58B 3Y note auction (91282CPT2) draw 3.609% high yield vs. 3.610% WI; 2.65x bid-to-cover steady vs. prior.
- Peripheral stats: Indirect take-up retreats to 56.50% vs. 71.97% prior; direct bidder take-up at 29.5% from 19.0% prior; primary dealer take-up 14.0% vs. 9.03% prior.
- The next 3Y auction is tentatively scheduled for Febuary 10.
