EMERGING MARKETS: GUINEA-BISSAU: Military Coup Underway As President Arrested

The president of the West African nation of Guinea-Bissau, Umaro Sissoco Embaló, has been arrested by military officers in what appears to be a coup d'etat. Reports suggest gunfire was heard at the presidential palace in the capital, Bissau, as well as at the National Electoral Commission. The military claims it is in "total control" of Guinea-Bissau, is "suspending the electoral process," and that it has closed the country's borders. 

• The country held its presidential election on 23 November, with the results due to have been released tomorrow (27 Nov). Both Sissoco Embaló and main opposition candidate, Fernando Dias da Costa, had claimed victory. Dias da Costa was backed by the PAIGC, which held a majority in parliament before dissolution, after its leader, Domingos Simões Pereira, was barred from running.
• According to Jeune Afrique, the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces, the Deputy Chief of Staff, and the interior minister were arrested at the same time as Sissoco Embalo. Sissoco Embalo claimed the coup was led by the Army's Chief of Staff.
• Just weeks ago, several senior army officials were detained for their alleged part in a planned coup against the president.
• The political situation in Guinea-Bissau has been particularly febrile in recent months. The opposition claimed that Sissoco Embalo's term ended in February, declaring him an illegitimate president. The Supreme Court ruled that his term expired on 4 Sep.
• With the country now having recorded 11 military coups since independence from Portugal in 1974, any prospect of a shift towards sustained political stability would appear minimal (unless the military can unite behind a single figurehead to lead a junta).