ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today

• RES 3: 95.900 - High Jan 8 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 95.676 - 50-dma
• RES 1: 95.653 - 23.6% retracement Oct - Mar Downleg (cont)
• PRICE: 95.185 @ 16:43 GMT Mar 27
• SUP 1: 95.035 - Low Mar 22
• SUP 2: 95.011 - 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band
• SUP 3: 94.410 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

Markets have steadied above lows Monday on the back of Trump’s claims that he’s pursuing talks with Iran, however the broader trend themes remain negative for prices. Resistance to watch has shifted lower, with 95.653 representing the 23.6% retracement for the downleg posted off the October high on the continuation contract. A clear break of it would signal a short-term reversal. The bear mode set-up in MA studies is highlighting a dominant downtrend. In addition, any weakness through year-to-date lows at 95.560 has prompted further downside, opening vol-band support into 94.410. 

The USD/JPY range Friday night was 159.70-160.41, Asia is currently trading around 160.20. The pair jumped above 160 on Friday night and there are no signs of intervention, yet. I still personally believe it is a hard ask for the MOF/BOJ to come in when the USD is starting to get real traction higher. Better to wait for potential unwinds of Yen-Carry trades and then add their weight to that move should it come. On the day, the first support is back toward 159.50 and then the 157.50-158.00 area. The Yen bears will be looking for the move above the 160 area to gain momentum, watch for increased BOJ Jaw-Boning up here. As risk starts breaking some pivotal levels the potential for it to turn into a Bear market is there, if that scenario unfolds I would start keeping an eye on the Yen-Carry trades. This could see some of these profits having to be booked to pay for losses elsewhere and as we know the door to this exit can sometimes very quickly get crowded. This would be a boon for the BOJ on the FX side.

• MNI: Lower End of BOJ Neutral Rate Estimate Rises To -0.9%. The Bank of Japan has revised up its estimate of the lower end of the natural rate of interest to -0.9% from -1.0% in the wake of updates of its calculations of the potential growth rate and output gap, the Bank of Japan said in its Review on Friday, adding that the change does not have any policy implication.
• CFTC Data up to 24/03/2026 shows Asset Managers for the first time turning short Yen after stubbornly running down their long position, -3930(Last +1759). The Leveraged community pared back their already significant shorts, –64325(Last -72047).
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 159.50($318m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 156.50($1.77b April 1), 157.00($2.78b April 1) - BBG.
• The USD/JPY Average True Range(ATR) for the last 10 Trading days: 96 Points
• Data/Event : BOJ publishes a summary of opinions from its March policy meeting

Fig 1 : JPY CFTC Data

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500bn Zero-Coupon 91-Day Bonds
• South Korea to Sell KRW3 tn 3% 2-Year Bonds
• Malaysia to Sell 5 Billion Myr of New 2033 Bonds