ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
Dec-04 21:24
- China to Sell CNY96 bn 2026 Bonds
- China to Sell CNY27 bn 2055 Bonds
- India to Sell INR320 bn 6.48% 2035 Bonds
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NEW ZEALAND: Whole Milk Price Auction Sees Lower Prices Again, Weighing On ToT
Nov-04 21:21
NZ whole milk powder prices fell at the overnight GDT auction. We were down another 2.7% to the low $3500 region. This is the lowest level since Sep last year and we are around 20% off earlier 2025 highs. The chart below overlays the auction result against the Citi NZ term's of trade proxy. For a number of months now the softer whole milk price backdrop has been pointing to downside terms of trade risks. All else equal this will be a headwind for the NZD. Note later on today we get the Oct ANZ commodity price outcome.
Fig 1: NZ GDT Whole Milk Price & NZ Citi Terms Of Trade
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P./MNI
CANADA: Budget Deficit Grows To CAD78.3B From CAD42.2B, Record Ex Covid
Nov-04 21:04
- Deficit-to-GDP ratio projected to fall to 1.5% in 2029 from 2.5% in 2025.
- Federal debt-to-GDP 42.4% in 2025; expected to rise to 43.1% over next 5-year horizon. Liberals had pledged to lower this ratio over time.
- US trade war is a main drag on fiscal position as well as new spending.
- Immigration: Permanent resident targets to stabilize at 380,000, -15k from 2025, annually for three years. Temporary resident targets to fall from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026, and 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
- Public service jobs to decline by about 40k, or 10%, by the end of 2028-29.
- Finance Minister Champagne says Canada using its "fiscal firepower" to fight against U.S. trade war, and the fiscal plan can win needed support from some opposition lawmakers to pass the budget and avoid a snap election.
- Private economist survey used in budget saw BOC rate unchanged through next year at 2.25%.
CANADA 2025-26 DEFICIT CAD78.3B OR 2.5% GDP VS PRIOR CAD42.2B
Nov-04 21:03
- CANADA 2025-26 DEFICIT CAD78.3B OR 2.5% GDP VS PRIOR CAD42.2B
- 2026-27 DEFICIT RAISED TO CAD65.4B, 2% OF GDP, FROM CAD31B
- BUDGET ADDS CAD167B OF EXTRA DEFICITS OVER FIVE YEARS
- CHAMPAGNE DROPS LOWERING DEBT TO GDP AS A FISCAL ANCHOR
- CANADA DEBT RISES FROM 41.2% OF GDP IN 2024 TO 43.1% IN 2029
- DEFICIT TO GDP DECLINES FROM 2.5% IN 2025 TO 1.5% IN 2029
- CANADA ADDING ABOUT CAD30B OF NEW MEASURES THIS YEAR AND NEXT
- CANADA SEES BORROWING CAD614B IN FISCAL 2025, CAD594B IN 2026
- CANADA MORTGAGE BONDS LIMIT RISING TO CAD80B FROM CAD60B
