Oil prices rose sharply on Monday after US President Trump said that he would bring the deadline forward to 10-12 days from July 28 for Russia to stop fighting in the Ukraine bringing forward the prospect of increased US sanctions on Russian fossil fuel and third countries who buy it. Crude is also likely getting support from US trade deals and the EU’s decision to buy $750bn of US energy.
- WTI rose 2.8% to $66.98/bbl after a high of $67.14 to be up 4.9% in July, which technicals still see as corrective. Despite Monday’s rally, WTI didn’t breach initial resistance at $69.41. Initial support is at $64.75. It has started today around $67.01.
- Brent is up 2.9% to $70.40/bbl, close to the intraday peak but still below initial resistance at $72.66. The benchmark is now 5.5% higher this month. Initial support is $65.92, 30 June low.
- Trump appears to have lost patience with Russian President Putin saying he’s “not so interested in talking any more” after the latter has said one thing and done another. Trump said that he’ll likely make an announcement Tuesday. The original deadline was September 2.
- The EU added further restrictions on Russia to take effect in January but they need US support to be effective. This scenario with 100% tariffs on buyers of Russian oil could impact global crude supplies significantly.
- The OPEC+ committee didn’t give output guidance ahead of the August 3 meeting, where another increase is expected, but requested members comply with quotas.
- To ensure domestic supplies, Russia introduced an export ban on gasoline.
- The US delayed sanctions by 30 days on Russia’s Gazprom owned NIS refinery in Serbia for the 5th time.