ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today

USD/CNH tracks near 7.2940 in early Tuesday dealings, after CNH posted a 0.17% gain for Monday's session. Intra-session lows for Monday came in at 7.2833, as broader USD resumed sharp declines. The BBDXY index lost 0.70%, the DXY fell 0.88%, with US assets under pressure following Trump remarks against US Fed Chair Powell. Spot USD/CNY finished up at 7.2918, while the CNY CFETS basket tracker fell 0.18% to sub 96.00 (per BBG). 

• For USD/CNH technicals, Monday intra-session lows were under the 50-day EMA (7.2875), but we couldn't sustain this down move. Below this level we have 7.2730 the 100-day EMA, while the 200-day support point is close to 7.2525. Highs from last week were just under 7.3350.
• CNH continues to lag broader USD weakness.  The CNH/JPY cross got to fresh lows of 19.2757, but sits slightly higher now, last near 19.3060. EUR/CNH pushed above 8.43, but sits back closer to 8.400 in early Tuesday trade.
• Yesterday China warned countries against striking deals with the US that could impact China's interests. This follows various US media reports that the US would seek to isolate China through tariffs/trade deals with other countries/regions. China commodity import volumes for some US products have fallen sharply in recent months, particularly for LNG (per BBG).  
• The local data calendar has March FX settlement figures out later today, which usually come out in the afternoon, which should provide an update on capital flow pressures for China.  

TYM5 reopens at 110-24,  down 0-02 from closing levels in today’s Asia-Pac session.

• Overnight US 10-year yields had a range of 4.3287% - 4.4185%, closing near the highs around 4.41%, as US treasuries got sold when risk turned lower.
• Treasuries look to finish mostly lower Monday, curves twist steeper as the short end outperforms a sell-off in the long end, risk sentiment hampered as stocks hold at or near session lows.
• Global trade remains the greater concern, markets await something concrete in tariff negotiations vs. hopes and promises that talks with dozens of countries are going well, while Pres Trump berates Fed Chairman Powell and reiterates a call for "preemptive cuts".
• Yields have bounced off their support around the 4.25 area, and the correlation between yields and the USD continues to break down as US assets are being exited en masse.
• The IMF releases its World Economic Outlook tonight. The market will be keen to see its assessment of the recent turmoil.

Gold remained on the front foot through Monday trade, albeit in limited liquidity with EU markets still closed. We track near $3424 in early Tuesday dealings, just off session highs from Monday (3430.60), which was a fresh record high. Gold gained 2.92% for Monday's session with broad USD weakness, coupled with risk off in the US equity space driving gains. 

• The RSI (14) on gold is in overbought conditions, last above 77, but we have been in this state on numerous occasions already in 2025, with the market comfortable buying gold dips. We have the 20-day EMA back under $3190. Lows from the end of last week were at $3284.
• Topside focus is likely to rest on round figure resistance at $3500. Note Goldman Sachs stated bullion could hit $4000 by mid next year (via BBG).
• US Tsy yields were sharply higher at the back end of the curve, the 10yr up 9bps to 4.41% in Monday trade. President Trump comments berated Fed Chairman Powell and reiterated a call for "preemptive cuts". This raised fears of Fed independence and added to the negative risk mood. The SPX fell 2.36%.