GOLD: Gold Retreats from New Highs.
Apr-17 04:39
- Gold leapt above all prior highs overnight, smashing through the US$3,300 barrier and challenging all forecasts at the beginning of 2025
- Federal Reserve Chairman Powell warned that the trade tension and tariff war could result in inflation and hence the US Central Reserve is in no rush to cut rates whilst the WTO cut is forecast for merchandise trade as uncertainty reigns on tariffs. This equities lower and gold higher overnight which carried into the opening of the trading day in Asia.
- Opening at $3,342.19 and moving higher initially to $3,357.78, gold retreated in the afternoon in Asia to reach $3,339.75.
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US TSYS: Cash Bonds Slightly Richer, Focus On Tomorrow's FOMC
Mar-18 04:32
In today's Asia-Pac session, TYM5 is 110-23+, +0-04 from closing levels.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer, with a steepening bias, after yesterday’s twist-flattening. Yields finished 3bps higher to 3bps lower, pivoting at the 7-year.
- US tsy yields rose to their daily highs after Retail Sales data was released, with the market focusing more on the stronger control group sales, but the move wasn’t sustained and yields subsequently tracked lower.
- The focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement. The majority of analysts expects the FOMC to leave its Dot Plot funds rate medians unchanged in March compared with the December meeting. That would imply the Fed is still pencilling in 50bp of cuts in 2025 (to 3.9%) and 2026 (to 3.4%), with a further 25bp cut in 2027 (to 3.1%).
- The BoJ Policy is also due tomorrow Japan time. The BoJ is expected to keep its policy rate at 0.50% in March, with no urgency for another hike after its January increase.
BONDS: NZGBS: Subdued Session, FOMC Decision (Wed) & Q4 GDP (Thu)
Mar-18 04:00
NZGBs closed little changed after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s data-light local session.
- NZ-US and NZ-AU 10-year yield differentials closed 1-2bps wider.
- Cash US tsys are 1-2bps richer in today’s Asia-Pac session. The focus is on Wednesday’s FOMC decision.
- Swap rates closed unchanged after dealing 1-2bps higher earlier.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps firmer across meetings, with late 2025 leading. 24bps of easing is priced for April, with a cumulative 63bps by November 2025.
- Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Q1 Westpac Consumer Confidence and Q4 Current Account Balance data ahead of Q4 GDP on Thursday.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$200mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond and NZ$50mn of the 5.0% May-54 bond.
- The RBNZ will start the repurchase program of the Sep-25 inflation-indexed bond on March 21. The operation has no implications for monetary policy stance.
GOLD: Gold Consolidates Above $3,000
Mar-18 03:47
- Gold’s seemingly relentless march higher continues as the $3,000 barrier is breached and new highs achieved.
- Opening at $3,000.67, gold appeared set for a quiet day before a surge after lunch to reach new highs of $3,015.13, before settling at $3,010.50
- Gold’s rally appears to have been supported by news reports of fresh military strikes on Hamas by Israel which could ultimately unwind any gains made towards a ceasefire.
- Up over 15% year to date, golds ongoing rally has been fuelled by expectations for interest rate cuts, inflation concerns and tariff risks.
- Stockpiles of US gold exchange warehouses recorded their biggest decline in three months, following a three-month frenzy ahead of the implementation of tariffs.
