In Tokyo morning trade, JGB futures are weaker, -2 compared to settlement levels, after reversing the overnight session’s modest gains.
- The Q2 Tankan survey delivered some positive upside surprises. The large manufacturing index rose to 13, versus 10 forecast and 12 prior. The outlook for this segment was also better than forecast, printing at 12 (9 was forecast and 12 was the Q1 outcome). The all industry capex estimate was also stronger than expected, coming in at 11.5%, versus 10.0% forecast (3.1% was the prior outcome). For large non-manufacturing firms, the results were slightly less positive, with headline index at 34, in line with forecast, while prior was 35. The outlook printed at 27, below the expected 29 outcome (28 was recorded in Q1).
- President Donald Trump threatened to impose a fresh tariff level on Japan, citing the country's unwillingness to accept US rice exports, despite Japan's massive rice shortage. (per BBG)
- Cash US tsys are modestly richer, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bull-flattener.
- Cash JGBs are modestly cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is unchanged at 1.432% ahead of today’s supply
- Swap rates are flat to 1bp higher. Swap spreads are mixed.