OIL: GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Political Events Calendar 2026

Futures find demand around 91.00 before bears can get anywhere near forcing a test of next support at 90.53, contract last 91.11.

• 10-Year yields also stabilise around the next round number (4.50%).
• A reminder that cues from JGBs. EGBs & Tsys have driven gilt weakness at various stages of Monday trade, with little in the way of fresh meaningful UK news to digest.
• Yields 2-7bp higher, curve steeper.
• The backloaded nature of the UK’s projected fiscal tightening (questions over whether it will be enacted) and doubts over the accuracy of the fiscal headroom calculations leaves gilts susceptible to steepening pressure, particularly during times of pressure for global duration.
• Gilt/Bunds ~2bp tighter at 173.5bp. Multi-week range intact. Next downside level of note the November & '25 closing low (172.94bp).
• BoE-dated OIS still pricing ~22bp of easing for this month’s meeting.
• SONIA futures little changed to -5.0, strip steepens on cues from gilts.
• Implied-terminal rate pricing little changed around 3.35%.
• No reaction in GBP STIRs/gilts as MPC member Greene reaffirms her place in the hawkish MPC camp, although she does outline some potential triggers for a change in view (as detailed in recent bullets).

• RES 4: 107.175 High Oct 24
• RES 3: 107.095 High Oct 28 / 31
• RES 2: 107.049 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 107.010 20-day EMA   
• PRICE: 106.920 @ 14:52 GMT Dec 1
• SUP 1: 106.915 Intraday low   
• SUP 2: 106.900 Round number support
• SUP 3: 106.904 61.8% retracement of the Mar 6 - Apr 7 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 106.830 Low Mar 27 (cont.)  

A sharp sell-off on Schatz futures confirms a resumption of the downtrend that started mid-October. The contract has breached 106.945, the  Nov 17 low and pierced 106.920, the Sep 25 low and key support. A clear break of the latter would open 106.904 next, a Fibonacci retracement on the continuation chart. Initial firm resistance to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 107.052.

• "I would need to see the labour market deteriorate more, and that would need to play out not just in the unemployment data, but also in the employment data. The labour market data in the UK is very difficult to read, so I would want to take a steer from a bunch of different feeds for data to determine that that were occurring."
• "And then on the downside, I'm also concerned about our outlook for consumption. So we keep expecting consumption to kick in, and it keeps not happening... historically speaking, the UK consumer and the US consumer behave more similarly. US consumption is about 15% above pre pandemic levels. UK consumption is about 1% of a pre pandemic level... People [in the UK] aren't spending their saving. We keep expecting people to spend as interest rates come down. If the outlook for consumption were to end up much weaker than what we're expecting, then that might shift my views."