EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: Givaudan (GIVNVX): FY Results

Bund futures soften in early Tuesday trade but consolidate in the upper end of Monday’s range, last -14 at 127.66.

• From a technical perspective, Bund futures remain in a clear downtrend and the latest move higher appears corrective.
• Initial support is located at yesterday’s low (127.31) followed by the bear trigger (126.75).
• The 20-day EMA (127.86 today) capped yesterday’s rally and presents initial resistance. A break above would increase the threat to the bearish backdrop and expose the December 8 high (128.08).
• German yields 1.0-1.5bp higher. 10s 2.845%, 30s 3.475%, after their recent failed breaks above 2.90% & 3.50%, respectively.
• EGB spreads to Bunds little changed.
• Preliminary Spanish HICP data is due this morning.
• Our full preview of the upcoming round of EUR HICP data can be found here.
• More broadly, the minutes from the latest FOMC meeting are due to be released this evening (19:00 London), while manufacturing PMI data (final readings for the larger European economies & the Eurozone) will cross on Friday.

• RES 4: $4600.00 - Round number resistance
• RES 3: $4578.3 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 28 - Nov 13 - Nov 18 swing
• RES 2: $4549.9 - High Dec 26 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: $4430.8 - Low Dec 23                     
• PRICE: $4368.8 @ 07:30 GMT Dec 30 
• SUP 1: $4323.3 - 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $4271.9 - Low Dec 16 
• SUP 3: $4177.0 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 4: $3998.1 - Low Nov 18

The trend structure in Gold is unchanged, it remains bullish and a sharp sell-off yesterday appears corrective - for now. The trend is overbought and a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind. First support to watch is $4323.3, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would expose the 50-day EMA at $4177.0. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open $4578.3, a Fibonacci projection.

• The Riksbank December meeting minutes are due at 0830GMT/0930CET today. We will be focused on individual member’s views on the balance of risks to growth, inflation and policy rates through next year.
• The Riksbank held the policy rate at 1.75% as unanimously expected on December 18. The statement re-iterated that the policy rate is likely to remain at this level for “some time to come”. This was supported by the December MPR rate path, which was steady at 1.75% for the first three quarters through Q3 2026.
• MNI’s full review of the December Riksbank decision is here
• Lending data for November was supportive of the ongoing economic recovery narrative. Non-financial corporation lending growth was 3.5% Y/Y (vs 3.0% in October, 2.5% in September). Although household lending growth eased a touch to 2.8% Y/Y (vs 2.9% prior), lending still rose on a levels basis (see charts).