BUNDS: Gilt/Bund spread sees continued widening

Jul-27 12:20
  • Continued widening of the Gilt/Bund spread once again today, by another 2.8bps.
  • The spread is clear above 100.00bps, at 101.8, and would see next upside target at the April high, 106.10bps.

Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg

Historical bullets

MARKET INSIGHT: What to Watch: Yields Gaining Ahead Front-Ended Tsy Supply

Jun-27 12:19

Tsy yields gaining/extending pre-open highs w/ 30YY 3.3198% +.0625, while yield curves bear steepen (2s10s +2.877 at 8.747; 5s10s still inverted at -4.796).

  • Stocks holding modest overnight gains, ESU2 +14.25 at 3930.5; Crude making small gains (WTI +0.46 at 108.08); Gold stronger at 1835.79 at 1833.09 +6.21.
  • Economic data: No Fed speakers Monday, but durables, cap-goods and pending home sales data up next at 0830ET:
    • Durable Goods Orders (0.5%, 0.2%); ex transp (0.4%, 0.3%)
    • Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air (0.4%, 0.1%); ship (0.8%, 0.2%);
    • followed by:
    • Pending Home Sales NSA YoY (-3.9%, -3.9%); YoY (-11.5%, --) at 1000ET
    • Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-7.3, -6.5) at 1030ET
  • Flurry of Tsy supply ahead 4th of July extended weekend holiday:
    • US Tsy $42B 26W bill, $46B 2Y Note (91282CEX5) auctions at 1130ET

    • US Tsy $45B 13W, $47B 5Y Note (91282CEW7) auctions at 1300ET
  • Geopol: Leaders Reaffirm Support For Ukraine "As Long As It Takes": The leaders of the G7 economies have released a joint statement on their stance towards Ukraine and Russia. This follows an address to the group from Uk Pres Zelenskyy earlier this morning. Note, wires reporting on Russia foreign debt default first time since 1918.

CANADA: Trudeau, Freeland Say More Spending May Hurt BOC Inflation Fight

Jun-27 12:11
  • Clearer fiscal policy message in separate interviews with CBC over the weekend compared with past statements about potentially adding more fiscal stimulus
  • "Flushing more money into the economy" could "make the problem worse" Trudeau said in reference to inflation
  • Trudeau also agreed there is concern about a global recession, particularly "with what the US is going through"
  • Freeland: "I don't want to make the Bank of Canada's job harder than it already is"
  • Practical effect may be small since there's no full budget due until early next year, but comments signal fewer spending pledges in the meantime after a series of big-ticket measures announced in the pandemic

PIPELINE: Foreign Bank US$ Issuance

Jun-27 12:08
  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 06/27 $Benchmark NongHyup Bank 3.5Y +90, 5Y +110
  • Expected Tuesday:
  • 06/28 $Benchmark AfDB (African Dev Bank) 3Y SOFR+25a
  • 06/28 $Benchmark CDP Financial 3Y SOFR+42a
  • --
  • No new issuance last Friday, $16.75B priced on week