EUROZONE DATA: Germany Service PMI Solid Before Defence Spillover, France Dire
Mar-05 11:10
- The final Eurozone services PMI was revised down a tenth to 50.6 (flash 50.7) in February from 51.3, for its lowest since Nov and before that Feb.
- We have been noting how ex Germany and France countries have been outperforming for some time, and indeed our calculation for the average at circa 54 increased to its highest since mid-2024.
- The weighted average of Germany and France at a sombre 48.6 in February belies two very different recent trends however, with Germany at 51.1 and France sliding almost 3pts to 45.3 (lowest since Jan 2024) despite today’s 0.8pp upward revision.
- Political uncertainty appears to continue to plague French business confidence but German firms look in a good place considering the survey dates of Feb 10-25 won’t have captured any spillover from latest defence spending and infrastructure investment plans.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FOREX: USDJPY 100 Pips Off Overnight Highs, Bearish Threat Remains
Feb-03 11:05
- JPY resilience standing out on Monday as we approach the NY crossover, and USDJPY extends its pullback from the overnight highs to around 100 pips, back below 155.00. Price action is likely reflective of Japan being relatively well insulated to tariff rhetoric, but also its historical safe haven status gaining traction across the European session amid the broad weakness for major equity indices consolidating.
- The Jan 27 move down for USDJPY highlighted a bearish technical threat and significantly, initial firm resistance has remained intact at 156.75, the Jan 23 high. Overall, the pair has breached the 50-day EMA and a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low, signalling scope for a move towards 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point.
- With the USD index remaining around 1% in the green, yen strength is most notable in the crosses. Perhaps the clearest barometers of global risk sentiment, it is notable that AUDJPY (-1.23%) has dipped through the December lows at 95.50 and NZDJPY (-1.52%) stands out, having pushed to a near six-month low below 0.8600. For both crosses, the early August carry unwind lows remain the clear medium-term targets.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - S&P E-Minis Bear Threat Remains Present
Feb-03 11:02
- In the equity space, the S&P E-Minis contract contract has started the week on a bearish note. The gap lower today and a breach of support at 5948.00, the Jan 27 low, strengthens a bearish threat and cancels - for now - a recent bullish theme. An extension down would open 5892.37, 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg. Initial resistance is at 6057.75, the Jan 31 low and a gap high on the daily chart. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bullish theme.
- A sharp reversal lower in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract signals the end of the recent bull run - for now - and the start of a corrective cycle. Price has gapped lower and traded through the 20-day EMA, at 5152.76. A resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 5050.12, the 50-day EMA. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 5327.00, the Jan 31 high.
STIR: SOFR FIX - 03/02/25
Feb-03 11:00
| SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME | ||
| 1M | 4.31268 | -0.0004 |
| 3M | 4.30313 | 0.00088 |
| 6M | 4.25107 | 0.00276 |
| 12M | 4.16774 | 0.00744 |
