EUROPEAN INFLATION: German national CPI / HICP due at 13:00GMT / 14:00CET

Same-store retail sales remained robust through late September, per the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index which rose 5.9% Y/Y in the week to Sept 27. This was up from the 5.7% rise the prior week and brings month-to-date sales growth to 6.1% Y/Y (only slightly below retailers' targeted 6.3% gain).

• The consistently solid Redbook results over the last several months have been a good guide to headline Census Bureau retail sales data over the same period, which has shown resilience in (nominal) consumption despite weak consumer sentiment. The August PCE report published last week enjoyed several upside revisions to originally-published data which showed that on a 3M/3M annualized basis, real consumption growth (both goods and services) is running at 2.4%, a pickup from 2.1% in July (revised up from 1.0%) and steady with June's 2.5%. On a quarterly annualized basis, real goods purchases were running at 1.8% in August.
• We won't get September Retail Sales data until Oct 16. That assumes there is no government shutdown underway at that point which would preclude the data release - if that's the case then Redbook releases will take on additional importance.
• The Redbook report anecdotes suggest some weather-related factors at play in late September: "With the back-to-school program now largely completed, seasonal shopping became the main focus during the fourth week. Generally, regions with cooler weather tended to experience better business. Stores reported modest sales in Halloween-related merchandise, with retailers noting that promoting the event earlier usually results in increased sales volume. Among various merchandise categories, consumables and essential items led sales at discount stores, indicating that demand was primarily driven by everyday needs rather than any specific seasonal trends."

• MNI: US REDBOOK: SEP STORE SALES +6.1% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.9% WK ENDED SEP 27 V YR AGO WK

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