POWER: German Front Week Power Rallies on Low Wind

Jan-23 14:01

German front-week power is pulling higher today, reaching an intraday high of €115/MWh, with forecasts suggesting low wind output at the end of next week, after high output at the start of the week. Similar trends are seen in the French market. 

  • German wind output is forecast to fall sharply from Thursday 30 January, with output dropping as low as 2.59GW, or a 4% load factor, during base load on 31 January according to SpotRenewables.
  • Next week forecast: Mon (36.9GW), Tue (32.2GW), Wed (28.84GW), Thu (11.29GW), Fri (2.59GW), Sa (7.71GW)
  • Gains are despite forecasts for significantly warmer-than-average temperatures through next week, with milder weather to weigh on heating demand. Mean temperatures in Dusseldorf are forecast between 4.1C and 9C according to Bloomberg’s latest ECMWF model.
  • Forecasts are also adding support to German February power with prices trading at the highest since 3 January.
    • Germany Base Power Week 2 up 9.5% at 113 EUR/MWh
    • Germany Base Power FEB 25 up 4.2% at 111.51 EUR/MWh

Historical bullets

MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.0% V YR AGO MO

Dec-24 13:55
  • MNI: US REDBOOK: DEC STORE SALES +5.0% V YR AGO MO
  • US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.9% WK ENDED DEC 21 V YR AGO WK

US DATA: Philly Nonmanufacturing Consistent With Moderating Services Activity

Dec-24 13:53

The -6.0 reading for December's Philadelphia Fed's Nonmanufacturing current regional activity index (-2.4 expected) represented a steady outturn from -5.9 prior, and suggested a regional services sector that remained "weak", per the report. 

  • Accordingly, weakness in the report was fairly broad-based on a regional basis, though expectations for activity 6-months ahead rose to a 37-month high of 48.8. Per the report: "The indexes for general activity, sales/revenues, and new orders were little changed from last month and remained low. On balance, the firms continued to report increases in employment; however, the indexes for full- and part-time employment declined. Both price indexes rose and indicate overall increases in prices. The respondents remained optimistic about growth over the next six months both for their firms and in the region."
  • The recent spike in expectations (from negative as recently as August) can largely be attributed to optimism following November's elections. But the expectations index has been, at best, a coincident rather than a leading indicator - and even so, the it has consistently misled as to ongoing and future activity performance.
  • The Philly Fed survey tends to mirror the national ISM Services survey more closely than the PMI Services. ISM has pulled back from elevated levels while the PMI equivalent has continued to rise (see chart). Like the ISM, the Philly reading is consistent with a softening rather than resurgent services sector, something that we have begun to see reflected from the demand side in national PCE reports.
philly nonmanufacturing

STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Dec'24 SOFR Sale

Dec-24 13:41
  • -22,000 SFRZ4 95.655 (-0.005), post time bid at 0832:49ET, the Dec'24 contract trades 95.65 last.