UKRAINE: German Defence Min-We Must Concede Peace Appears Out Of Reach For Now
Apr-11 10:55
Speaking at a meeting of the Ukraine Defence Contact Group in Brussels, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius says that "Russia is still not interested in peace", and that "Given Russia's ongoing aggression against Ukraine, we must concede [that] peace appears out of reach for now". Pistorius' comments come as the US continues its solo diplomatic overtures towards Russia (see 'US-RUSSIA: US Envoy Witkoff In Russia Ahead Of Putin Meeting', 0954BST).
- Pistorius, who is set to remain in office as part of the new governing coalition in Germany, says that "Russia needs to understand that Ukraine is able to go on fighting."
- As co-host of today's meeting alongside Pistorius, UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey says that the new pledges of military aid announced as part of the meeting total over E21bln.
- Despite the bold words from both UK and German ministers, this UDCG meeting is most notable for the fact that it is the first since the group's establishment in 2022 to take place without the US Secretary of Defense physically present. Secretary Pete Hegseth joined the meeting virtually.
- The US' increasing disengagement with Ukraine's defence comes at a time that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has reiterated his plea for air defence capabilities. Potentially more concerning for Kyiv and Europe is speculation that amid an increase in activity along the frontline in the Donbas, Russia could be gearing up for a renewed offensive.
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EURIBOR OPTIONS: A very active Option market
Mar-12 10:54
A very active Option markets across the Board in early trade.
- ERM5 97.87/98.00/98.12c fly, sold at 2 in 37k total.
US TSYS: Awaiting CPI Before Potential BoC Spillover and 10Y Supply
Mar-12 10:49
- Treasuries have pared earlier gains to broadly consolidate yesterday’s sell-off, with a move continuing later in the session on partial tariff reprieve.
- Focus is firmly on the February CPI report but there is also potential spillover from the BoC decision, almost fully expected to cut 25bp but, again from a spillover angle, likely risks from any dovish surprises.
- It’s followed by 10Y supply after last month’s auction saw a 1bp tail but some better details on take-up distribution.
- Cash yields are within +/- 0.5bps of yesterday’s close.
- 2s10s at 33.5bp (-0.4bp) is still towards the higher end of the past month’s range.
- TYM5 at 110-28+ (+ 01+) holds close to yesterday’s low of 110-25+, on more modest cumulative volumes of 310k after some heavy overnight sessions recently.
- Support is seen at 110-12+ (Mar 6 low) before 110-00 (Feb 7 high) but the trend structure is still bullish. Yesterday’s high of 111-25 pierced resistance to open 112-021 (Mar 4 high) and 112-02 (Fibo projection).
- Data: CPI Feb (0830ET), Federal budget balance Feb (1400ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy to sell $39bn 10Y Note reopen - 91282CMM0 (1300ET)
- Bill issuance: US Tsy to sell $60bn 17-W bills (1130ET)
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI, 10Y Note Reopen
Mar-12 10:48
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 12-Mar 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (20.4%, --)
- 12-Mar 0830 CPI MoM (0.5%, 0.3%), YoY (3.0%, 2.9%)
- 12-Mar 0830 CPI Index NSA (317.671, 319.268)
- 12-Mar 0830 CPI Core Index SA (324.739, 325.713)
- 12-Mar 0830 Real Avg Hourly Earning YoY (0.9% rev, --)
- 12-Mar 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction
- 12-Mar 1300 US Tsy $39B 10Y Note reopen (91282CMM0)
- 12-Mar 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$128.6B, -$308.0B)
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