POWER: German DA Flips Back to Slight Premium to France
Jan-23 11:58
The German day-ahead returned to a slight premium to France as expected by MNI in the previous session as higher load factors of wind and firm nuclear availability in France kept prices lower than the latter. The contracts fell sharply from the previous session as tightness in the system eased owing to an expected drop in demand, with wind output increasing on the day in both countries. .
- The German day-ahead spot settled at €78.90/MWh from €103.94/MWh on the previous day.
- The French day-ahead spot cleared at €78.04/MWh from €110.33/MWh on the previous day.
- Germany was at a €0.86/MWh premium from a €6.39/MWh discount in the previous session.
- Wind output in Germany is forecast to rise to 34.56GW during base load on Friday, up from 30.42GW on Thursday, according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then be at a 27% load factor, or 17.54GW on Saturday, but with typically lower demand seen on the weekend prices could still drop on the day.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast to decrease to 61.64GW on Friday, down from 63.09GW on Thursday amid mean temperatures in Dusseldorf forecast to rise to 6.2C on Friday from 4.1C on Thursday and above he seasonal average of 2.9C, according to Bloomberg.
- Demand will then be at 52.86GW the next day.
- In contrast, wind output in France is forecast to rise to 11.35GW, or a 57% load factor during base load on Friday, up from 8.12GW on Thursday according to SpotRenewables.
- Wind will then be at a 28% load factor the next day.
- Power demand in France is forecast to fall to 65.82GW on Friday from 68.6GW on Thursday amid mean temperatures in Paris forecast to rise 8.7C on Friday from 6.2C on Thursday and above the seasonal average of 4.2C, according to Bloomberg.
- Deman will then drop to around 59.96GW on 25 January.
- Nuclear availability in France was stable at 92% of capacity as of Thursday morning, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 26 January.
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