INDIA: GDP Growth Above Expectations at 7.4% Y/Y in 1Q (Est: +6.8%)

• In FX, the recent pullback in EURUSD is considered corrective and the trend structure is unchanged, it remains bullish. MA studies are in a bull-mode position signalling a dominant uptrend, and the latest move down is allowing an overbought condition to unwind. A resumption of gains would open 1.1608 next, the Nov 9 2021 high. Key support is at the 20-day EMA, at 1.1251. A break of this average would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.
• The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bullish and Monday’s fresh cycle high reinforces current conditions. The move higher highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, signalling a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.3510, a 1.236 projection of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Support to watch lies at 1.3202, the 20-day EMA.
• The bounce in USDJPY that started Apr 22 is considered corrective. Resistance to watch is 144.06, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a stronger recovery. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 146.87. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a 1.382 projection of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing.

• Fed Funds implied rates are 0-2bp higher on the day for 2025 meetings, in a similar pattern to yesterday’s overnight session with a modest paring of the previous day’s large rally.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 2.5bp for next week, 17bp Jun, 38.5bp Jul and 95.5bp Dec.
• The ~96bp of cuts is off yesterday’s low of 98bps that marked its lowest since Apr 11.
• Further out the curve, SOFR futures have given back little of yesterday’s gains: SFRU6 (where the terminal yield currently sits at 2.985%) is just 1 tick higher on the day at 97.015 (overnight high 97.045) having returned to pre-tariff pause levels on Monday.
• Today sees a heavy data docket, including ADP employment, Q1 GDP, Q1 ECI, MNI Chicago PMI and the monthly PCE report in chronological order. 

OI data points to a mix of net long setting and short cover during Tuesday’s uptick in SOFR futures, with the most meaningful positioning adjustment seemingly coming via net long setting across the greens and blues (only modest net short cover in SFRH8 broke the wider theme in those 2 packs).