SECURITY: Gaza Ceasefire Deal Ready To Be Concluded And Implemented, Blinken
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at an event hosted by the Atlantic Council, has confirmed that a Gaza ceasefire-for-hostage deal is "ready to be concluded and implemented" if Hamas accepts the conditions of the framework.
- Blinken says: "We believe the Palestinian Authority should invite international partners to help establish and run an interim administration in Gaza after a ceasefire deal," adding that an "interim security mission would be made up of forces from partner nations and vetted Palestinian personnel."
- Blinken notes that the Biden administration, "will hand off plan for post-war Gaza to the Trump administration to carry forward."
- Blinken's remarks are consistent with recent comments from US officials and Qatari mediators suggesting a ceasefire deal is closer than it has been in months, however, a final deal appears to hinge on Hamas approval, which in turn depends on how credible Hamas leadership deems a proposed Israeli military withdrawal from Gaza. As noted in earlier bullets (ISRAEL: WSJ-Israel, Hamas Finalising Gaza Deal, Could Come This Afternoon) there is some domestic uncertainty on the Israeli side, "in the form of the requirement for any deal to be approved by Israel's security cabinet and the full gov't."
- The Jerusalem Post reported a short time ago: "No final answer was given from Hamas regarding a hostage deal, an Israeli official [said]."
- A Qatari statement earlier today read: "We have overcome the major differences. This is the closest point we have been to a deal over the past months,"
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MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: Inflation Data Keep Fed Cut On Track
We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI US Macro Weekly offering succinct MNI analysis across the range of macro developments over the past week. Please find the full report here:
USDCAD TECHS: Fresh Cycle High
- RES 4: 1.4393 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- PRICE: 1.4236 @ 16:38 GMT Dec 13
- SUP 1: 1.4069/3944 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
The trend direction in USDCAD remains up and this week’s gains to a fresh cycle high, reinforces the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4069, the 20-day EMA.
US TSYS: Extending Late Session Lows, Curves Bear Steepen Ahead Next Wed's FOMC
- Treasuries traded steadily lower throughout Friday's session, initially mirroring weak action in Bunds and Gilts. By the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract slipped to 109-26 (-18) the lowest level since November 22, 10Y yield rising to 4.4046% high (+.0768).
- Initial technical support at 109-22 (76.4% Nov 15 - Dec 6 Upleg) followed by 109-20 (Low Nov 20/21).
- Curves bear steepened: 2s10s +2.272 at 15.568 as short end rates outperformed ahead of next week's FOMC policy announcement where another 25bp rate cut was expected but not certain amid current macro and political uncertainty. That said, the latest unemployment and inflation data have kept the FOMC on track to cut the federal funds rate by 25bp (to 4.25-4.50%) next Wednesday.
- Projected rate cuts into early 2025 look near steady to lower vs. this morning levels (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -24.3bp (-23.7bp), Jan'25 -28.6bp (-29.6bp), Mar'25 -42.2bp (-43.9bp), May'25 -48.4bp (-50.5bp).
- No reaction to this morning's import/export prices, Monday brings flash S&P Global PMIs, Retail Sales, IP & Cap-U on Tuesday.
