NATGAS: Gassco Expects High Gas Delivery and Stable Operations Into Winter
Oct-02 08:52
Norway’s Gassco expects gas delivery levels to remain high with stable operations and high regularity in the gas transport system entering the winter season after a successful maintenance period.
- 2025 saw a less extensive maintenance program than in 2024 and 2023.
- Deliveries so far in 2025 are at a stable high level with 76.8bcm from February to August, equivalent to 848.6TWh.
- Unplanned outages at Nyhamna and Troll have contributed to a slower return to full operations than originally expected. The Nyhamna outage of 19.8mcm/d due to compressor failure is currently showing until Oct. 4 but with uncertain duration. The Troll outage of 27mcm/d is due to compressor failure amid delayed start-up and expected until Oct. 3.
- Gassco shows total planned and unplanned unavailable capacity of falling to 73.1mcm/d today, falling to 53.4mcm/d tomorrow and 33.8mcm/d on Oct. 5.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe for today have been revised down slightly to 303.8mcm/d but compared to an average of 257mcm/d in September, Bloomberg shows.
- See graph below for current planned and unplanned unavailable capacity
Source: Gassco field and processing plant unavailable capacity
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CROSS ASSET: Yield Pressures Bleed into Currencies, Equities and Risk
Sep-02 08:46
The mix this morning of: political uncertainty in Japan (various resignations across the LDP), a window-dressing UK reshuffle (not expected to resolve Starmer's popularity crisis in the near-term) and acute pressure on the longer-end of the UK, US and European yield curves - has reignited fiscal, financing and politic risk concerns around higher borrowing costs - driving sentiment through the European open.
- Sizeable down-move in GBP/USD comes despite the bullish technical backdrop that stemmed from the bullish engulfing candle posted on August 22nd. With spot showing through the lows already today, this somewhat undermines the recovery off 1.3391 and instead retracement support expected into 1.3315 and 1.3369 is of more importance.
- Today's price action serves as a further reminder of the pressure on governments from bond markets, particularly as Summer concludes. Today's Gilt price action shows markets are not satisfied with floated proposals so far for the UK Treasury to raise indirect taxes through property, capital gains, landlords, or otherwise. Given the internal party opposition to spending cuts, this places additional pressure on the Chancellor's pledge not to raise VAT, income tax or national insurance this parliament - a topic that will likely be a market focus into the Autumn Budget - and may have to become a more palatable option the longer yields stay higher.
SPAIN T-BILL AUCTION RESULTS: 6/12-month letras results
Sep-02 08:39
| Type | 6-month letras | 12-month letras |
| Maturity | Mar 6, 2026 | Sep 4, 2026 |
| Amount | E1.594bln | E4.174bln |
| Target | E5-6bln | Shared |
| Previous | E1.552bln | E4.033bln |
| Avg yield | 1.958% | 1.986% |
| Previous | 1.932% | 1.945% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.14x | 1.56x |
| Previous | 2.01x | 1.27x |
| Previous date | Aug 05, 2025 | Aug 05, 2025 |
GILTS: The 4.80% Yield holds
Sep-02 08:34
- The Initial Yield Level in the UK 10yr has held perfectly, this was seen at 4.80%, which equated to 89.80, printed a 89.82 low and a 4.793% high so far on the day.
- As investors price less cut but also demand higher Yields on Borrowing cost, and Growth concerns, the next big Yield level would be seen at 4.921%, this was the 2025 high and the highest printed level since July 2008.
Today, reference 90.03:
- 4.921% = 88.75.
