NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Rises
Feb-07 16:32
TTF March prices are rising today, driven by a forecasted drop in temperatures across NW Europe allowing high storage withdrawals amid increased heating demand. This has offset improved Norwegian pipeline supplies and firm LNG imports. The contract is up by around 5% on the week.
- TTF MAR 25 up 2.3% at 55.73€/MWh
- Temperatures in NW Europe are forecast to fall towards mid February but could be followed by a recovery back towards normal.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe have risen to the highest since Jan. 21 at 335.8mcm/d as capacity returns from outages, according to Bloomberg.
- European net gas storage withdrawals are still above normal after rising on Feb. 3. Storage has fallen to 50.63% full on Feb. 5, according to GIE, compared to the previous five year average of 58.6%.
- European LNG sendout remains strong with NW flows at 260mcm/d on Jan. 5 compared to the high this winter of 274.7mcm/d.
- Equinor commented yesterday that up to 35 Bcm of additional Russian gas could be seen in Europe following an end to the Russia/Ukraine conflict.
- Russian missile attacks on Ukrainian gas infrastructure are forcing the country towards costly European gas imports to replace the flows Bloomberg sources report.
- The number of US LNG export cargoes continue to recover up to 29 in the week to Feb. 5 from 24 the week prior, according to the EIA. Total capacity of the vessels increased to 110bcf from 90bcf.
- An LNG ship loaded with fuel is heading to the Red Sea, in a sign of easing tensions, Bloomberg reports.
- An Australian LNG cargo appears to be heading to Europe for the first time since 2022, and only the second time in at least 10 years, according to ICIS vessel tracking data.
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FED: US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.190%(ALLOT 22.73%)
Jan-08 16:32
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 4.190%(ALLOT 22.73%)
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 35.31% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 5.56% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 59.13% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 17W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.24
US-EU: Blinken And Barrot Downplay Greenland Comments, Indicate Gaza Progress
Jan-08 16:24
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot have spoken on a range of issues to reporters at a press conference in Paris, following a bilateral meeting earlier today.
- At the top of the presser, both ministers note that the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire agreement is operating as planned, with a withdrawal of 30% of Israeli troops from Lebanon underway.
- On Gaza, Blinken says: “We’re very close to a ceasefire and hostage agreement… I hope we can get it over the line in the time we have left but if we don’t, then the plan will be handed over to the [Trump administration].”
- Blinken reiterated that a “transformative” agreement to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia is “ready to go” if there is a ceasefire in Gaza.
- On US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed acquisition of Greenland, Blinken said: “The idea expressed about Greenland is obviously not a good one, but maybe more important: It’s obviously one that is not going to happen, so we probably shouldn’t waste a lot of time talking about it.”
- Barrot says that the Franco-US relationship has survived 59 US elections, and “will survive the 60th”.
- Barrot: “Do we think the US will take Greenland? The answer is no… That being said we are entering a period of time where force is present everywhere…”
- Barrot quotes a comment from French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday saying that Europe needs to “wake up” and “strengthen up”.
CANADA: Fin Min LeBlanc Says He Won't Run For LPC Leader
Jan-08 16:20
Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc has confirmed that he will not enter the race to succeed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau as leader of the centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC). In a statement, LeBlanc - who took over from long-standing Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland following her resignation in December 2024 - said that his focus and that of his gov't departments must be on the threatened imposition of tariffs from the US once President-elect Donald Trump comes to office.
- The two frontrunners to take over from Trudeau remain Freeland and former BoC and BoE governor Mark Carney. Betting markets are somewhat divided.
- Polymarket has Carney as the favourite to become the LPC leader with a 40% implied probability to Freeland's 35%.
- Data from Kalshi shows bettors giving Freeland a 43% implied probability of being the next PM compared to 38% for Carney (the two websites ask slightly different questions, but the next LPC leader - barring unforeseen circumstances - will become the PM and as such can be seen as essentially the same).
- Whether Carney, Freeland, or another potential candidate emerges as LPC leader and PM they are unlikely to have a significant amount of time before an election campaign.
- The leftist New Democratic Party and the regionalist Bloc Quebecois, both crucial to avoiding defeat for the minority LPC gov't in previous confidence votes, have said they support an election at the nearest opportunity. Opinion polling continues to show the main opposition centre-right Conservatives on course for a comfortable majority.
