NATGAS: Gas Summary At European Close: TTF Edges Lower
May-07 15:18
TTF has edged lower as rising feedgas to US LNG export terminals today offset some supply risks amidst Norwegian maintenance.
- TTF JUN 25 down 0.8% at 34.45€/MWh
- The European Union has proposed a set of measures to ban Russian gas imports by end of 2027, and is proposing a ban on spot contracts by end of 2025.
- Slovakia says it rejects the European Commission’s plans to phase out Russian gas and other energy imports Prime Minister Robert Fico said on Wednesday.
- Hungary described the EU’s plan to phase out Russian energy imports as unacceptable.
- Feedgas to the US Freeport LNG export terminal have recovered to 1.78bcf/d after an outage yesterday saw a drop to just 0.3bcf/d., Bloomberg shows.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are 280.2mcm/d today, Bloomberg shows. Gassco shows total planned outages of 68.2mcm/d until May 8 before reducing to 25.2mcm/d on May 9.
- NW European LNG sendout was at 247mcm/d on May 5 compared to an average of 236mcm/d over the previous week and 175mcm/d in the first week of May 2024, Bloomberg shows.
- European gas storage was up to 41.41% full on May 5, according to GIE, compared to the previous five-year average of 51.1% with net injections back near normal.
- Turkish LNG importer Botas is looking to buy cargoes on a mid- and long-term basis through 2038, Bloomberg reports.
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Historical bullets
FED: US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.542 BLN FROM $68.000 BLN TOTAL
Apr-07 15:15
- US TSY 26W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $1.542 BLN FROM $68.000 BLN TOTAL
FED: US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.137 BLN FROM $76.000 BLN TOTAL
Apr-07 15:15
- US TSY 13W AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $2.137 BLN FROM $76.000 BLN TOTAL
STIR: Fed Rate Path Continues Push Higher After Tariff Rumor Spike
Apr-07 15:08
- The Fed rate path is pushing higher again having initially fully reversed a spike on unsubstantiated and subsequently refuted headlines around a 90-day pause in tariffs.
- The speculation-driven spike aside, it’s back close at Friday’s close for near-term meetings and a little above for meetings from September onwards.
- Cumulative cuts from an assumed 4.33% effective: 12.5bp for May (vs 16bp at the NY crossover), 35bp Jun (vs 40bp), 57.5bp Jul (vs 66bp) and 99bp Dec (vs 112bp).
- Inter-meeting cut odds still haven’t fully receded though, showing ~2bp of cuts priced in the April FF contract vs closer to 6.5bp of cuts at one point overnight. Today’s regular Board of Governors meeting at 1130ET could be helping that despite being a purely routine event as noted earlier.
- There have been larger reversals of the overnight rally further out the curve: SOFR futures show terminal yields at 3.14% (in the SFRU6) after a ~20bp lift since the NY crossover. It’s now +8.5bp from Friday to limit the slide to ~25bps since Liberation Day tariffs.
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