US: Gallup Economic Confidence Drops To Lowest Level Since July 2024
Gallup reports that its Economic Confidence Index (ECI), “fell seven points to -30 in November, the lowest since a -35 reading in July 2024.”
- According to Gallup, “The decline reflects slightly worsening views on both components of the index: Americans’ ratings of current economic conditions (as excellent, good, only fair or poor) and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or getting worse.”
- Gallup notes, “Twenty-one percent of U.S. adults in November, down slightly from 24% in October and the lowest percentage since March, described current economic conditions as excellent or good. By contrast, 40% now rate current conditions as poor, compared with 37% in October.”
- The report adds, "Optimism about jobs is down eight points from the prior measure in August and is the most negative Gallup has recorded since the closing days of Trump’s first term, in January 2021 during the pandemic."
- Politico reports, in a survey out today, "Almost half — 46 percent — say the cost of living in the U.S. is the worst they can ever remember it being, a view held by 37 percent of 2024 Trump voters. Americans also say that the affordability crisis is Trump’s responsibility, with 46 percent saying it is his economy now and his administration is responsible for the costs they struggle with."
Figure 1: Economic Confidence Index, Trend Since 2020
Source: Gallup
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GBPUSD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.3471 High Oct 17 and a key short-term resistance
- RES 3: 1.3383 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.3249/3304 Low Oct 14 / 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.3142 Low Aug 1
- PRICE: 1.3043 @ 16:14 GMT Nov 4
- SUP 1: 1.3030 1.236 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 2: 1.2971 1.382 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2945 50.0% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 1.2877 1.618 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
A bear cycle in GBPUSD remains intact and the pair has resumed its downtrend Tuesday. A key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low, has recently been cleared. The break confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Sep 17. Sights are on 1.3030 and 1.2971 next, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the trend is in oversold territory, a recovery would allow this condition to unwind. Initial resistance is at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low.
STIR: Fed Rates Await Important Data Updates
- US rates have seen little change so far through the US session, broadly holding the overnight modest rally on broad risk-off moves despite WTI futures paring a sizeable part of earlier losses (-0.4% vs -1.6% as US desks filter in).
- Fed Funds futures cumulative cuts from 3.87% effective: 16.5bp Dec, 26bp Jan, 34.5bp Mar, 40.5bp Apr, 55bp Jun.
- SOFR futures mostly sit +0.015-0.025 looking out to end-2027, with the terminal implied yield at 3.095% (H7) 2bp below yesterday’s highest close since August but still dovish by multi-month standards.
- Dec FOMC pricing continues to hold nearly all of the hawkish adjustment seen after Powell noted a strongly divided committee around December cut prospects at Wednesday’s press conference.
- Fed VC Supervision Bowman (permanent voter, firm dove) had been one of the few events of note on today’s docket but ended up not discussing monetary policy contrary to the event description.
- Tomorrow sees a pause in scheduled Fedspeak, with attention likely on the October ADP and ISM Services reports plus any spillover to front rates from Treasury’s QRA.
US: FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage slips to $16.893B with 13 counterparties this afternoon - from $23.792B Monday. Compares to $2.435B on October 24 (lowest level since mid-March 2021) and the year's highest usage of $460.731B on June 30.
