A bearish cycle in EURGBP remains intact and this week’s recovery is likely a correction. The sharp sell-off between Apr 11 - 14, strengthened the bearish condition. The cross traded below 0.8296, Mar 23 low, as well as 0.8276, 76.4% of the Mar 7 - 31 rally. This opens 0.8203, the Mar 7 low and the next bear trigger. Firm resistance is seen at 0.8405, Apr 11 high. A break would represent a short-term bullish development. Initial resistance is at 0.8336.
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Previous, tentative signs of buying interest in core FI have been overpowered, with the likes of T-Notes & Aussie 10-Year futures registering fresh session lows in recent dealing. Core fixed income sellers remain well and truly in the driving seat during Asia-Pac hours as the region reacts to Monday’s hawkish rhetoric from Fed Chair Powell.
Core fixed income markets have started to find a little bit of a base over the last hour or so, although headline flow remains light, with a clear downward bias when it comes to the broader direction of travel during Asia-Pac dealing, as the region reacts to Monday’s Fedspeak from Chair Powell & the resultant fresh leg of cheapening.
ANZ note that “ANZ-Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence and Google search data show households are worried about petrol prices. But ANZ-observed spending has been resilient and interest in travel hasn’t waned over cost of living concerns. Resilient spending suggests households are using saving buffers to cover the increase in cost of living, rather than reining in spending, which is a good sign for consumption as inflation intensifies.”