INDONESIA: FX Reserves Down Marginally.
Dec-06 03:16
- Indonesia’s FX Reserves moderated to US$150.2bn in November.
- Down from $151.2 bn the change is likely attributed to market movements.
- The rupiah has (like most of its Asian counterparts) had a volatile time since Trump’s election.
- Unlike India’s Central Bank who has spent $50bn to keep their currency stable, the B.I intervention has been at the edges.
- In recent days the B.I. Governor has indicated that rate cuts could be done and that they are ready to support the rupiah.
- Today’s number shows that they have the FX reserves to do so should they decide to remain on hold.
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GOLD: Steady As US Election Unfolds
Nov-06 02:59
Gold is steady in today’s Asia-Pac session, after closing 0.2% higher at $2743.99 yesterday. For reference, last week bullion hit a fresh all-time high of $2,790.
- The key focus today is the unfolding U.S. Election, with results coming in steadily.
- Decision Desk HQ still has election odds firmly in favour of Trump, close to 69%. Also note: NYT's presidential forecast 'needle' has for the first time in the night moved out of the 'tossup' category, with the election now seen as 'leaning Trump' with a 66% chance of victory according to the Times.
- Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. Bitcoin is now up above 5%. EUR and JPY down a little over 1.2%, with AUD and NOK not far behind. MXN is down 2.4%, last near 20.60, fresh highs in USD/MXN back to 2022. USD/CNH is above 7.1500, around session highs.
- US equity futures are up near 1.0% for Eminis. US yields are up 11-16bps across the curve. The 10-year back to 4.415%. The curve is steeper.
- According to MNI’s technicals team, the trend condition in gold remains bullish, with sights on the $2,800.0 handle next.
AUDJPY TECHS: JGBS: Little Changed Despite Very Heavy US Tsys As US Election Unfolds
Nov-06 02:55
At the Tokyo lunch break, JGB futures are weaker, -7 compared to the settlement levels.
- BoJ members agreed to carefully assess uncertainties over the global economy, particularly conditions in the US, according to minutes from the September policy meeting. The members continued to agree to raise the benchmark rate if their outlook for meeting their price target is realized. (per BBG)
- Nevertheless, the key focus today is the unfolding U.S. Election, with results coming in steadily.
- Decision Desk HQ still has election odds firmly in favour of Trump, close to 69%. Also note: NYT's presidential forecast 'needle' has for the first time in the night moved out of the 'tossup' category, with the election now seen as 'leaning Trump' with a 66% chance of victory according to the Times.
- Trump-related trades continue to gain ground. Bitcoin is now up above 5%. EUR and JPY down a little over 1.2%, with AUD and NOK not far behind. MXN is down 2.4%, last near 20.60, fresh highs in USD/MXN back to 2022.
- US equity futures are up near 1.0% for Eminis. US yields are up 11-16bps across the curve.
- Cash JGBs are flat to 1bp cheaper across benchmarks. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.7bp higher at 0.949%.
- Swap rates are 1bp lower to 2bps higher, with a steepening bias
US ELECTIONS: Fox Calls TX Sen. Seat For Cruz, GOP Need One Pickup For Majority
Nov-06 02:51
Fox News has called the race for Texas' Class 1 US Senate seat for incumbent Republican Ted Cruz. With Florida's Rick Scott holding onto his seat and (as expected) Governor Jim Justice flipping the West Virginia seat formerly held by Democrat-turned-independent Joe Manchin, the GOP now only needs to win one more seat to guarantee control of the Senate after the election.
- Two Democrats in the form of Montana's Jon Tester and Ohio's Sherrod Brown are facing tough contests, with Montana in particular seen as a likely pickup for the GOP.
- As such there is a strong prospect that the Republican party will end the night in control of the Senate no matter whether Donald Trump wins the presidency (which would give the GOP a tie-breaking vote if Tester and Brown retain their seats).
