FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY

• RES 4: $107.341 - 76.4% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 sell-off
• RES 3: $97.804 - High Mar 2
• RES 2: $90.015 - High Mar 10 
• RES 1: $84.174 - 38.2% retracement of the Jan 29 - Mar 23 bear leg        
• PRICE: $73.168 @ 09:25 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $61.007 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: $60.000 - Round number support 
• SUP 3: $56.496 - Low Dec 4 ‘25
• SUP 4: $53.345 - Low Nov 28 ‘25 

Silver has pulled back from its mid-April recovery high of $83.054. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position and this continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. It also suggests that the recovery since Mar 23, is likely a correction. A resumption of weakness would expose the bear trigger at $61.007, the Mar 23 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend. First resistance to watch is $84.174, a Fibonacci retracement point.

• RES 4: $5107.6 - 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 3: $5000.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 2: $4914.9 - 61.8% retracement of the Mar 2 - 23 bear leg 
• RES 1: $4889.4 - High Apr 16
• PRICE: $4522.2 @ 09:22 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $4554.2 - Low Apr 2 and a key short-term support
• SUP 2: $4420.1 - Low Mar 30
• SUP 3: $4306.4 - Low Mar 24
• SUP 4: $4099.2 - Low Mar 23 and the bear trigger

Gold is trading closer to its recent highs despite the latest pullback. A resumption of gains would resume the correction that started on Mar 23 and pave the way for an extension towards the $5000.0 handle and $5107.6, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm support to watch lies at $4554.2, the Apr 2 low. A break of this level would be bearish. Note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position. This continues to highlight a stronger bearish threat.

• RES 4: $117.13 - 1.382 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing  
• RES 3: $113.10 - 1.236 proj of the Mar 10 - Apr 7 - 17 price swing   
• RES 2: $110.00 - Psychological round number 
• RES 1: $101.17/104.34 - High Apr 17 / High Mar 9 and the bull trigger        
• PRICE: $99.08 @ 08:08 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: $85.08 - 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: $78.97 - Low Apr 17
• SUP 3: $73.56 - Low Mar 10 
• SUP 4: $68.38 - Low Mar 2  

Recent weakness in WTI futures appears to have been corrective. Key support around the 50-day EMA, at $85.08, remains intact. It has been pierced, however, a clear break of it is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. A continuation higher would open $104.34, the Mar 9 high and bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. Note that MA studies are in a bull-mode position.