FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY

Of Note:

EURUSD 2.03bn at 1.1400 (could act as magnet).

USDCAD 1.93bn at 1.3800 (fri).

USDCAD 2.4bn at 1.3800/1.3825 (tue).

• EURUSD: 1.1375 (455mln), 1.1385 (493mln), 1.1400 (2.03bn).
• GBPUSD: 1.3320 (268mln).
• USDJPY: 1.2520 (725mln), 142.00 (353mln).
• AUDUSD: 0.6350 (361mln), 0.6355 (784mln), 0.6375 (254mln), 0.6400 (647mln).
• USDCNY: 7.3000 (586mln).
• EURNOK: 11.7800 (535mln).

The ECB’s latest forward-looking wage tracker update (which includes agreements signed up to the first week of April) remains consistent with the Governing Council’s base case of easing compensation pressures through 2025. 

• Compared to the March iteration, the latest wage tracker excluding one-off payments (which we think gives the best view of underlying compensation pressures) has a slightly lower profile in Q1/Q2 2025, but an unchanged terminal in Q4.
• Q4 2025 wage growth excluding one-offs still tracks at 3.02% Y/Y.
• The wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments tracks Q4 growth at 2.88% Y/Y (vs 2.85% in March), while the headline wage tracker has 1.62% Y/Y (vs 1.55% in March).

Definitions of the different metrics according to the ECB:

• The headline ECB wage tracker shows negotiated wage growth that includes collectively agreed one-off payments, such as those related to inflation compensation, bonuses or back- dated pay, which are smoothed over 12 months.
• The ECB wage tracker excluding one-off payments reflects the extent of structural (or permanent) negotiated wage increases.
• The ECB wage tracker with unsmoothed one-off payments is constructed using a methodology that, both in terms of data sources and statistical methodology, is conceptually similar to, but not necessarily the same as, the one used for the ECB indicator of negotiated wage growth.

• MNI: EUROZONE FLASH APRIL MANUF PMI 48.7 (FCAST 47.4, MAR 48.6)
• EUROZONE FLASH APRIL SERVICES PMI 49.7 (FCAST 50.5, MAR 51.0)