EUR: FX Exchange traded Weekly Option
FX Exchange Weekly traded Option, expiry Friday, covers the US CPI, IJC, Retail Sales and IP, and the rest of the European Final CPIs.
- EURUSD (expiry Friday) 1.0675c , bought for 0.00020 and 0.00025 in 2k.
Underlying is slightly higher than the spot at 1.0341.
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EGB FUNDING UPDATE: ESM / EFSF 2025 / 2026 Funding Update
- ESM long-term funding plans: E21.5bln in 2025 (E20.0bln in 2024 with E18.0bln estimate from 2026).
- EFSF funding plans: E7.0bln (E7.0bln in 2024 with E7.0bln estimate from 2026).
- The 2026 estimates are new and the 2025 estimates are in line with the estimates published in December 2023.
- The ESM has confirmed that it will continue with its 3/6-month bill auctions through H1-25 (it will confirm H2-25 bill auction schedules in the June newsletter).
| 3-month | 6-month |
|---|---|---|
| January | Tuesday 07 | Tuesday 21 |
| February | Tuesday 04 | Tuesday 18 |
| March | Tuesday 04 | Tuesday 18 |
| April | Tuesday 01 | Tuesday 15 |
| May | Tuesday 06 | Tuesday 20 |
| June | Tuesday 03 | Tuesday 17 |
SILVER TECHS: Bearish Trend Set-Up
- RES 4: $35.226 - 61.8% of the 2011 - 2020 major bear leg
- RES 3: $35.167 - 2.00 proj of the Aug 8 - 26 - Sep 6 price swing
- RES 2: $33.125/34.903 - High Nov 1 / High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: $32.338 - High Dec 12
- PRICE: $30.641 @ 08:04 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: $29.642 - Low Nov 28
- SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
- SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8
A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play and recent gains appear to have been a correction. Price has recently traded through a trendline drawn from the Aug 8 low. A clear resumption of the bear leg would open $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, a continuation of recent gains would instead signal scope for a climb towards $33.125, the Nov 1 high.
USDCAD TECHS: Bullish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.4416 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.4327 2.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 2: 1.4296 2.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4246 2.00 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- PRICE: 1.4224 @ 08:01 GMT Dec 16
- SUP 1: 1.4084/3955 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 3: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
- SUP 4: 1.3747 Low Oct 17
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat and last week’s gains reinforce the current bullish theme. The pair has cleared 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, to confirm resumption of the uptrend and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 1.4246 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key short-term support has been defined at 1.3928, the Nov 25 low. Initial support to watch lies at 1.4084, the 20-day EMA.
