JGBS: Futures A Little Lower Overnight

Mar-22 23:44

JGB futures shed 10 ticks overnight, as the continued cheapening of the U.S. Tsy complex applied pressure to the contract. The contract finished overnight trade a little above session lows after breaking through its February trough (based on a continuation chart). U.S. Tsy futures have subsequently stabilised during early Asia trade. Focus will fall on 10-Year JGB yield gyrations after the crossing of the 0.23% mark triggered BoJ intervention via fixed rate operations back in February (the benchmark finished Tuesday trade at 0.217%).

  • Local FX matters continue to garner more attention, with the latest run higher in USD/JPY resulting in Japanese Finance Minister Suzuki suggesting that recent FX market moves are “a bit large.” Note that such rhetoric doesn’t point to imminent government intervention when it comes to buying JPY, with the recent JPY weakness largely driven by fundamentals. Suzuki also noted that currency market stability is important, with rapid moves deemed undesirable. Elsewhere, he played down speculation surrounding the potential for additional fiscal stimulus at this time, although subsequent press reports have suggested that PM Kishida may order the compilation of such a package by the end of March.
  • BoJ Rinban operations covering 1- to 10-Year JGBs headline the local docket today, which may promote some steepening of the curve in early Tokyo trade. Final machine tool orders data for Feb will hit later in the day, with the final leading and coincident index prints for January also due.

Historical bullets

RUSSIA: Macron And Putin Held Their Second Phone Call Today

Feb-20 23:38

Reports doing the rounds that French President Emmanuel Macron and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin held their second phone call today and spoke for about an hour, with no more details available so far. The talks follow a brief call between Macron and Biden.

CROSS ASSET: Caution Aplenty To Start The Week

Feb-20 23:37

Risk-off is the prevailing theme early this week, with focus on the continued U.S. assertions re: the likelihood of a Russian invasion of Ukraine in the coming days. BBG source reports noting that “the U.S. has told allies that any Russian invasion of Ukraine would potentially see it target multiple cities beyond the capital Kyiv” have seemingly added further fuel to the proverbial fire. Tsy futures have been bid from the re-open and e-minis trade 0.2-1.0% worse off vs. settlement (with the NASDAQ 100 leading the way lower). FX trade sees the JPY atop the G10 FX leader board, while the antipodeans find themselves at the other end of that particular table.

JGBS: Futures Firm Overnight

Feb-20 23:32

JGB futures added 15 ticks in the final overnight session of last week, leaning on the broader bid observed in the core global fixed income space, and could draw further support from the early Asia bid in U.S. Tsy futures (related to the Russia-Ukraine stand off).

  • There hasn’t been much in the way of meaningful local news flow observed over the weekend, so offshore matters will likely be in the driving seat early on Monday.
  • Flash PMI data and BoJ Rinban operations covering 1- to 10-Year JGBs headline locally on Monday.