NATGAS: Funds Raise TTF Long Positions Again in Week to May 10
GAS POSITIONING - Investment fund net long positioning in ICE TTF futures rose again last week and the most bullish since February 2022 according to the commitment of traders data for the week to May 10. The rise comes amid supply concern from LNG competition from Asia and geopolitical risks and despite the healthy European storage inventories.
- Investment Firm net position fell by 4.26m to -89.73m
- Investment Funds net position increased by 6.72m to +103.21m
- Commercial Undertaking net position fell by 7.09m to 5.45m
Source: Bloomberg
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OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Trend Signals In Gilts Point South
- In the FI space, a bear threat in Bund futures remains present, despite Friday’s bounce which appears to be a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 131.23, Feb 29 low. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend that started late last year and open 130.60, the 1.50 projection of the Dec 27 - Feb 29 - Mar 8 price swing. MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a downtrend. On the upside, a break of 133.48, Mar 27 high, would reinstate a bullish theme.
- A bear threat in Gilt futures remains present. Support at 98.05, the Mar 15 low, has recently been cleared. Note too that 97.67, 76.4% of the Feb 29 - Mar 12 rally, has also been breached and key support at 96.83, the Feb 29 low, has been pierced. A continuation lower would open 96.57, the 1.50 projection of the Mar 12 - 15 - 22 price swing. Initial resistance is at 98.60, the 20-day EMA.
EQUITIES: Credit Agricole Vol Option trade
Bank single stock Vol trade, Credit Agricole:
- XCA (21st June) 14^ vs (20th Dec) 14^, traded 0.55 for the December in 9k.
US: Trump 'Hush Money' Trial Begins Today
Jury selection in former President Donald Trump’s ‘hush money’ criminal trial begins in Manhattan, New York today – kicking off what could be the only one of four criminal cases against Trump to go to trial before the presidential election in November. Jury selection could last up to two weeks.
- According to New York law, the trial will not be televised. Trump is expected to appear in court four days a week with a court recess likely on Wednesdays. Even without a conviction, the trial will upend his campaign schedule and bring an embarrassing episode for Trump back into the spotlight during a key period of presidential campaigning.
- Political implications: A Quinnipiac University poll from March found that only 29 percent of voters said they'd be less likely to support Trump if he were to be convicted - a figure was largely made up of people who weren't likely to vote for him anyway.
- The Manhattan case is often reported as the least threatening to Trump. However, Presiding Judge, Juan Merchan, has appeared open the Manhattan DA Alvin Bragg’s framing of the case as election interference, rather than merely the misdemeanour charge of falsification of business records, opening Trump up to more severe criminal repercussions.
- Trump said at a press conference on Friday, alongside House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) at Mar-a-Lago, that he would “absolutely” testify at the trial, but it is unclear if his legal team will risk allowing Trump to be questioned under oath.
