BUNDS: Full reversal

Jun-16 08:48
  • Bund is through143.00, and below the latter opens to yesterday's low at 142.25.
  • That would be an incredible 333 ticks turnaround in just 24hours.
  • BTP futures is also catching up.
  • Support here is seen at 116.00.Below the latter, sees yesterday's low at 114.89.
  • Further out, sees the gap to 114.04 (BTP open saw a 196 ticks upside gap yesterday).

Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg

Historical bullets

RUSSIA: Lavrov: No Big Difference If Sweden, Finland Join NATO

May-17 08:43

Speaking at the 'New Horizons Educational Marathon' Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stating that there would be 'no big difference' if Sweden and Finland join NATO as both had 'long participated in NATO military drills'. Language much softer than that used by other Russian gov't officials.

  • Lavrov also stated that NATO did not respect its 'promises' not to enlarge further, stating that "NATO wants a unipolar world. They promised Russia they won't enlarge, even in 2009, and that they won't threaten us, but they tricked us....No country can strengthen its security on the backs of others...The Atlantic organization cannot claim to have dominance over security,"
  • In comments that are likely to cause some consternation in Paris, Lavrov states "French president Macron is the only European leader who has a balanced view of the situation and proposes constructive solutions for the 'situation in Ukraine'." Many Russia hawks in the West have raised concerns about Macron's continued dialogue with Putin.

GILTS: Bear flattening following labour market data

May-17 08:43
  • Gilts continue to underperform the German and UST curve after the stronger than expected labour market data this morning.
  • The curve has bear flattened, led by a sell-off at the front-end with 2-year yields up 10.2bp at writing to 1.324% with 10-year yields up 8.0bp (so the 2s10s curve flattening by 2.3bp to 48.4bp).
  • It remains a big week for data in the UK with inflation data due tomorrow morning and then GfK consumer confidence and retail sales data both due Friday.
  • Today we will hear from BOE Deputy Governor Cunliffe in a fireside chat with the Wall Street Journal, it is unclear if there will be any discussion of monetary policy.
  • Political posturing surrounding the NI Protocol continues, with the potential for the UK government to lay out more detail proposals to override it possibly coming as soon as today (or later this week).
  • 2y yields up 10.2bp today at 1.324%, 5y yields up 9.7bp at 1.454%, 10y yields up 8.0bp at 1.809% and 30y yields up 6.8bp at 2.043%.
  • 2s10s down -2.3bp today at 48.4bp and 10s30s down -1.1bp today at 23.5bp.

GBP: In the green against all the majors

May-17 08:34
  • GBPJPY up 1.53% now, with next upside target seen at 162.01, the 50% short term retrace of the April/May fall.
  • GBPUSD sees next resistance at 1.2512 (20d EMA).
  • EURGBP is clear through the 0.8415 50-day EMA, and test 0.8400.
  • Below the latter, would open to 0.8367 Low May 2 and a key support.