LOOK AHEAD: Friday Data Calendar: S&P Global PMIs, Fed Speakers Return
Sep-21 16:32
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Sep-22 0850 Fed Gov Cook at AI conference, text, no Q&A
- Sep-22 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (47.9, 48.2)
- Sep-22 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (50.5, 50.7)
- Sep-22 0945 S&P Global US Composite PMI (50.2, 50.4)
- Sep-22 1300 SF Fed Daly on economy, policy
- Sep-22 1300 MN Fed Kashkari fireside chat, audience Q&A, livestreamed
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STIR: BoE Peak Pricing Pulls Back, ECB Steady
Aug-22 16:31
BoE peak rate pricing pulled back almost all of Monday's rise on Tuesday, with ECB pricing fairly steady going into Wednesday's PMIs.
- BoE terminal Bank Rate pricing -5.8bp to 6.03% (78bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Mar 2024) - Peak pricing fell to session lows (-9bp) by late morning after weaker-than-expected CBI Manufacturing Orders data. September hike pricing faded 1bp to 31bp, implying just under a 25% probability of a 50bp vs 25bp hike - but this was up from 29bp at the session low. For the next two meetings cumulatively, pricing dipped 1bp to 54bp.
- ECB terminal depo Rate pricing -0.7bp to 3.96% (21bp of further hikes left in the cycle to Dec 2023). Once again, ECB pricing was little changed, with the rate strip continuing to await macro catalysts to guide toward anything but a 4.00% terminal rate (PMIs tomorrow, Jackson Hole this weekend and inflation data next week are the most likely). 14bp (56% prob of a 25bp hike) of tightening is priced for the September meeting, with 19bp cumulatively through the coming 2 meetings.
OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Aug-22 16:25
- EUR/USD: Aug24 $1.0814-20(E1.1bln), $1.0890-00(E1.6bln), $1.0930-40(E1.2bln), $1.1000(E1.1bln), $1.1090-00(E1.4bln); Aug25 $1.0810-25(E1.1bln)
- USD/JPY: Aug24 Y145.00($1.7bln), Y146.00($1.9bln)
- AUD/USD: Aug28 $0.6410-25(A$1.5bln)
- USD/CNY: Aug24 Cny7.2300($1.5bln), Cny7.2500($1.3bln), Cny7.2700($1.1bln), Cny7.3000($3.5bln), Cny7.3300($1.9bln), Cny7.3500($3.2bln)
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: S&P PMIs, Home Sales, Prelim Payroll Revs
Aug-22 16:25
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Aug-23 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-0.8%, --)
- Aug-23 0945 S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (49.0, 49.0)
- Aug-23 0945 S&P Global US Services (52.3, 52.0), Composite (52.0, 51.5)
- Aug-23 1000 New Home Sales (697k, 704k), MoM (-2.5%, 1.0%)
- Aug-23 1000 Prelim Payrolls Benchmark Revision
- Aug-23 1130 US Tsy $24B 2Y FRN R/O (91282CHS3), $50B 17W Bill auctions
- Aug-23 1300 US Tsy $16B 20Y Bond sale (912810TU2)
