EURUSD TECHS: Fresh YTD Highs

Apr-14 04:42
  • RES 4: 1.1274 61.8% of the Jun 1 2021 - Sep 28 2022 bear trend
  • RES 3: 1.1185 High Mar 31 2022
  • RES 2: 1.1127 1.00 projection of the Mar 15 - 23 - 24 price swing
  • RES 1: 1.1076 High Apr 1 2022
  • PRICE: 1.1069 @ 05:41 BST Apr 14
  • SUP 1: 1.0977 Low Apr 13
  • SUP 2: 1.0911/0849 Low Apr 12 / 20-day EMA
  • SUP 3: 1.0788 Low Apr 3
  • SUP 4: 1.0765 50-day EMA

EURUSD continues to climb. The pair has breached key resistance at 1.1033, the Feb 2 high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and more importantly, confirms a resumption of the broader uptrend that started Sep 28 last year. This signals scope for a climb to 1.1076, the Apr 1 2022 high and 1.1185 further out, the Mar 31 2022 high. On the downside, key short-term support lies at the 20-day EMA, at 1.0867.

Historical bullets

MNI EXCLUSIVE: BOJ's Ueda To Wait And Watch As 10-Yr Yield Sinks

Mar-15 04:28

BOJ's Ueda to wait and watch as 10-Yr yield sinks -- on MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com.

BOJ: *CORRECT* Rinban Tweaks Seen

Mar-15 03:58

Corrects 5-10 year purchase size



Today's Rinban saw a step down in 5- to 10-Year purchases to Y575bn from the previous Y675bn, while 25+-Year purchases were stepped down to Y50bn from Y100bn last time out. This comes after 10-Year yields pulled off the YCC cap in recent days.

BONDS: NZGBS: Weaker As S&P Warns About Current Account Deficit

Mar-15 03:48

NZGBs close 16-17bp weaker with bond rating comments from S&P regarding the current account deficit weighing on the market going into the bell. NZ/US and NZ/AU 10-year yield differentials pushed respectively 5bp and 12bp wider.

  • Q4 Current Account data released today showed a worse-than-expected deterioration with a -8.9% of GDP print (8.5% expected).
  • BBG ran with comments from S&P that it would need to see the current account deficit narrow over the next 12 to 18 months otherwise there would be “increased pressure on the AA+ rating.”
  • Swaps are 11-19bp cheaper, implying wider short-end and tighter long-end, with the 2s10s curve 8bp flatter.
  • RBNZ dated OIS firms 5-22bp. April meeting pricing closed with 25bp of tightening. Terminal OCR expectations closed at 5.36%.
  • Locally, Q4 GDP is slated for release tomorrow. After remaining surprisingly resilient in the face of aggressive tightening, recent data has become patchier.
  • With BBG consensus expecting -0.2% Q/Q versus the +0.7% forecast by the RBNZ in its February MPS the local market has potentially another domestic driver to focus on tomorrow.
  • In the interim, the market will likely keep an eye on U.S. Tsys through the release of U.S. PPI and Retail Sales data.