POWER: French Spot Power to Ease Back
Jan-15 08:15
The French spot power index is expected to fall with higher nuclear availability and forecasts for higher wind and lower demand. France February power is edging higher with forecasts for colder weather.
- France Base Power FEB 25 up 0.8% at 97.99 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 1% at 77.71 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas FEB 25 up 0% at 46.955 EUR/MWh
- Nuclear availability in France increased to 92% of capacity as of Wednesday morning, up from 88% on Tuesday, RTE data showed, cited by Bloomberg.
- EdF’s 1.62GW Flamanville 3 is currently in test runs with 35MW of capacity until 18 January, extended by one day with output lowered from 180MW previously.
- The latest 6-10 day ECMWF weather forecast for Paris suggested mean temperatures have been revised down on the day with temperatures to remain milder until 18 January, before turning colder, falling below the seasonal average for most of the forecast period.
- Mean temperatures in Paris are forecast to rise to 5.6C on Thursday, up from 4.5C on Wednesday but below the seasonal average of 6.4C.
- Power demand in France is forecast to decline to 74.69GW on Thursday, down from 75.48GW on Wednesday according to Bloomberg.
- Wind output in France is forecast to rise to 2.96GW during base load on Thursday, up from 2.28GW on Wednesday according to SpotRenewables.
- Residual load in France is forecast to decline to 68.64GWh/h on Thursday, down from 71.77GWh/h on Wednesday according to Reuters.
- France’s hydro balance has been revised down on the day to end at -2.26TWh on 29 January, down from -2.08TWh forecasted a day earlier.
- The unplanned outage at the 2GW IFA interconnector between France and the UK has been extended by six days until 21 January, with capacity curtailed to 1GW.
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Historical bullets
ESM ISSUANCE: ESM / EFSF 2025 / 2026 Funding Update
Dec-16 08:14
- EFSF long-term funding plans: E21.5bln in 2025 (E20.0bln in 2024 with E18.0bln estimate from 2026).
- ESM funding plans: E7.0bln (E7.0bln in 2024 with E7.0bln estimate from 2026).
- (Corrects earlier bullet with EFSF/ESM labelled the wrong way round above)
- The 2026 estimates are new and the 2025 estimates are in line with the estimates published in December 2023.
- The ESM has confirmed that it will continue with its 3/6-month bill auctions through H1-25 (it will confirm H2-25 bill auction schedules in the June newsletter).
| 3-month | 6-month |
| January | Tuesday 07 | Tuesday 21 |
| February | Tuesday 04 | Tuesday 18 |
| March | Tuesday 04 | Tuesday 18 |
| April | Tuesday 01 | Tuesday 15 |
| May | Tuesday 06 | Tuesday 20 |
| June | Tuesday 03 | Tuesday 17 |
GILTS: Off Friday Lows
Dec-16 08:12
Gilts higher at the open, with core global FI peers ticking away from lows ahead of the gilt open.
- Futures recover to 94.42 before fading back to 94.32.
- Gilt futures traded sharply lower last week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low.
- A continuation lower would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low.
- Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high. Initial resistance is at 95.16, the 20-day EMA.
- Yields ~1.5bp lower across the curve.
- SONIA futures now little changed to +2.0 given the uptick in gilts.
- More colour on this week’s UK market movers and BoE pricing in our early STIR bullet.
- Ultimately, labour market (Tuesday) and CPI (Wednesday) data will provide the major domestic inputs ahead of this week's BoE decision.
- Today’s flash PMI data could also impact.
- Expect our usual previews of the tier 1 data and BoE decision ahead of those events.
EGB FUNDING UPDATE: ESM / EFSF 2025 / 2026 Funding Update
Dec-16 08:07
- ESM long-term funding plans: E21.5bln in 2025 (E20.0bln in 2024 with E18.0bln estimate from 2026).
- EFSF funding plans: E7.0bln (E7.0bln in 2024 with E7.0bln estimate from 2026).
- The 2026 estimates are new and the 2025 estimates are in line with the estimates published in December 2023.
- The ESM has confirmed that it will continue with its 3/6-month bill auctions through H1-25 (it will confirm H2-25 bill auction schedules in the June newsletter).
| 3-month | 6-month |
|---|---|---|
| January | Tuesday 07 | Tuesday 21 |
| February | Tuesday 04 | Tuesday 18 |
| March | Tuesday 04 | Tuesday 18 |
| April | Tuesday 01 | Tuesday 15 |
| May | Tuesday 06 | Tuesday 20 |
| June | Tuesday 03 | Tuesday 17 |
