POWER: French Spot Power Index Rises to Over One-Month High

• Treasuries sit twist steeper following the latest escalation in President Trump’s push against Fed independence, claiming to have fired Fed Governor Cook who has since said he doesn’t have the authority to do so.
• Ahead, data is headlined by durable goods and the Conf. Board consumer survey with its labor differential. Focus will then be on Trump’s remarks at 1100ET before the 2Y auction for an interesting test of front-end demand amidst Fed independence concerns.
• Cash yields are 1.9bp lower (2s) to 3.9bp higher (30s).
• 5s30s sits at 114.9bp (+4.3bps) off an overnight high of 116bps, a fresh multi-year high.
• TYU5 trades at 111-29 (-02) on elevated cumulative volumes of 575k of which a little more than half is quarterly roll related. We estimate more than half the roll has been completed, with higher roll rates in other contracts.
• TYU5 continues to slowly pare Friday’s Powell-driven gains, which saw a high of 112-08 stop short of resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high, bull trigger). Support is seen at 111-13 (50-da EMA).
• Data: Durable goods orders Jul prelim (0830ET), Philly Fed non-mfg Aug (0830ET), FHFA/S&P house prices Jun (0900ET), Conference Board consumer survey Aug (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Aug, Dallas Fed services Aug (1030ET)
• Fedspeak: Barkin repeats speech (0830ET)
• Coupon issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction - 91882CNV9 (1300ET). Last month’s 2Y auction stopped through by 0.5bp and the bid-to-cover increased from 2.58 to 2.62 but indirect take-up retreated.
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
• Politics: Trump participates in cabinet meeting with White House press pool (1100ET)

Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete currently 60%-70% ahead "First Notice" date this Friday, August 29. Current roll details:

• TUU5/TUZ5 appr 289,000 from -9.12 to -8.75, -8.88 last; 62% complete
• FVU5/FVZ5 appr 349,100 from -5.5 to -5.0, -5.0 last; 61% complete
• TYU5/TYZ5 appr 263,100 from -1.25 to -0.5, -0.75 last; 62% complete
• UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 229,000 from -0.25 to +0.5, 0.25 last; 66% complete
• USU5/USZ5 appr 49,000 from 12.0 to 12.5, 12.25 last; 70% complete
• WNU5/WNZ5 appr 90,300 from 7.0 to 8.25, 8.0 last; 65% complete
• Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30.

• RES 4: 113-23   76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
• RES 3: 113-07   76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off 
• RES 2: 112-23   High May 1 
• RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
• PRICE:‌‌ 111-29+ @ 11:33 BST Aug 26
• SUP 1: 111-13+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
• SUP 3: 110-03   76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
• SUP 4: 109-28   Low Jun 6 and 11 

A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support at the 50-day EMA, at 111-13+. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, sights are on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.