POWER: French Spot Power Index Rises to Over One-Month High
Sep-25 10:51
The French spot power index increased to the highest since 13 August with forecasts for low wind and cooler temperatures, lifting heating demand. The German market also rose with waning wind generation.
- The German day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot settled at €94.96/MWh, compared with €81.81/MWh in the previous session.
- The German peak-load spot index settled at €98.47/MWh, compared with €74.78/MWh the day before.
- German wind output is forecast to decline to 20GW during base load on Friday, down from 27.66GW on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast at 13.95GW during peak load on Friday, from 10.83GW on Thursday.
- Residual load in Germany is forecast at 24.6GWh/h on Friday, up from 17.99GWh/h on Thursday and broadly in line with the forecast 24h earlier.
- German gas demand for residential and commercial users is forecast at 58.5mcm/d on Friday, down from 63.8mcm/d on Thursday.
- Power demand in Germany is forecast at 55.09GW on Friday, down from 56.16GW on Thursday.
- The French day-ahead base load on the Epex Spot settled at €86.77/MWh, compared with €62.78/MWh in the previous session.
- The French peak-load spot index settled at €86.47/MWh, compared with €55.62/MWh the day before.
- French nuclear availability was stable at 77% of capacity as of Thursday morning.
- French nuclear availability is forecast at 51.55GWh/h on Friday, up from 49.33GWh/h on Thursday.
- Wind output in France is forecast at 1.24GW during base load on Friday, down from 2.99GW on Thursday. Solar PV output is forecast at 5.48GW during peak load on Friday, broadly stable on the day.
- Residual load in France is forecast at 42.58GWh/h on Friday, up from 40GWh/h on Thursday.
- Power demand in France is forecast at 46.19GW on Friday, down from 47.15GW on Thursday.
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US TSYS: Twist Steeper On Latest Fed Independence Concerns
Aug-26 10:49
- Treasuries sit twist steeper following the latest escalation in President Trump’s push against Fed independence, claiming to have fired Fed Governor Cook who has since said he doesn’t have the authority to do so.
- Ahead, data is headlined by durable goods and the Conf. Board consumer survey with its labor differential. Focus will then be on Trump’s remarks at 1100ET before the 2Y auction for an interesting test of front-end demand amidst Fed independence concerns.
- Cash yields are 1.9bp lower (2s) to 3.9bp higher (30s).
- 5s30s sits at 114.9bp (+4.3bps) off an overnight high of 116bps, a fresh multi-year high.
- TYU5 trades at 111-29 (-02) on elevated cumulative volumes of 575k of which a little more than half is quarterly roll related. We estimate more than half the roll has been completed, with higher roll rates in other contracts.
- TYU5 continues to slowly pare Friday’s Powell-driven gains, which saw a high of 112-08 stop short of resistance at 112-15+ (Aug 5 high, bull trigger). Support is seen at 111-13 (50-da EMA).
- Data: Durable goods orders Jul prelim (0830ET), Philly Fed non-mfg Aug (0830ET), FHFA/S&P house prices Jun (0900ET), Conference Board consumer survey Aug (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Aug, Dallas Fed services Aug (1030ET)
- Fedspeak: Barkin repeats speech (0830ET)
- Coupon issuance: US Tsy $69B 2Y Note auction - 91882CNV9 (1300ET). Last month’s 2Y auction stopped through by 0.5bp and the bid-to-cover increased from 2.58 to 2.62 but indirect take-up retreated.
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $85B 6W bill auction (1130ET)
- Politics: Trump participates in cabinet meeting with White House press pool (1100ET)
US TSY FUTURES: September'25-December'25 Roll Update
Aug-26 10:49
Latest Tsy quarterly futures roll volumes from September'25 to December'25 below. Percentage complete currently 60%-70% ahead "First Notice" date this Friday, August 29. Current roll details:
- TUU5/TUZ5 appr 289,000 from -9.12 to -8.75, -8.88 last; 62% complete
- FVU5/FVZ5 appr 349,100 from -5.5 to -5.0, -5.0 last; 61% complete
- TYU5/TYZ5 appr 263,100 from -1.25 to -0.5, -0.75 last; 62% complete
- UXYU5/UXYZ5 app 229,000 from -0.25 to +0.5, 0.25 last; 66% complete
- USU5/USZ5 appr 49,000 from 12.0 to 12.5, 12.25 last; 70% complete
- WNU5/WNZ5 appr 90,300 from 7.0 to 8.25, 8.0 last; 65% complete
- Reminder, Sep futures don't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on September 22, 2s and 5s on September 30.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (U5) Trend Needle Points North
Aug-26 10:44
- RES 4: 113-23 76.4% retracement of the Sep’24 - Jan’25 sell-off
- RES 3: 113-07 76.4% retracement of the Apr 7 - 11 sell-off
- RES 2: 112-23 High May 1
- RES 1: 112-15+ High Aug 5 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 111-29+ @ 11:33 BST Aug 26
- SUP 1: 111-13+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 110-23+/08+ Low Aug 1 / Low Jul 15 & 16
- SUP 3: 110-03 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg
- SUP 4: 109-28 Low Jun 6 and 11
A bullish theme in Treasury futures remains intact and the contract continues to trade above support at the 50-day EMA, at 111-13+. A clear break of this average would expose support at 110-23+, the Aug 1 low. For bulls, sights are on 112-15+, the Aug 5 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend and pave the way for a climb towards 112-23 initially, the May 1 high.
