COMMODITIES: Crude Edges Lower, Gold Unchanged But Bull Cycle Still In Play
Sep-25 16:49
- WTI crude has edged lower today amid further dollar strength and uncertainty around the supply-demand outlook. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure remain in focus.
- WTI Nov 25 is down by 0.4% today at $64.7/bbl, although it remains more than 3.5% higher on the week.
- Meanwhile, Iraq’s foreign minister said that talks have begun with Turkey for a new pipeline agreement, which would allow flows of around 230kbpd initially to resume from Iraqi Kurdistan, increasing to 400k-500kbpd with new investment, according to Bloomberg.
- From a technical perspective, the trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish, despite this week’s gains, which are considered corrective.
- Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high, while key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high.
- A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has traded in a relatively tight range today, with the yellow metal currently broadly unchanged at $3,734/oz.
- Gold remains 1.4% higher on the week, around $50 below Tuesday’s fresh all-time high.
- The trend condition in gold is unchanged, and a bull cycle remains in play. This week’s record high confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
- The next objective is the $3,800.0 handle. Initial firm support lies at $3,632.8, the 20-day EMA.
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FED: US TSY 2Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $330 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL
Aug-26 16:45
- US TSY 2Y AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $330 MLN FROM $69.000 BLN TOTAL
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: Ontario 5Y SOFR Rolled to Wednesday
Aug-26 16:44
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 08/26 $1B #OCBC 10NC5 +80
- 08/26 $1B #Bank Saudi Fransi 10NC5 +200
- 08/26 $800M #Sempra 30.5NC5.25 6.375%
- 08/26 $500M #BOC Aviation 5.5Y +58
- 08/26 $500M #Mitsui & Co 5Y +63
- 08/26 $500M JERA Co 5Y +78
- Expected Wednesday:
- 08/27 $2B ESM 2030 WNG +42a
- 08/27 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR +54a
STIR: Modest Dovish Shift But Still Some Way Off Pricing Another ECB Cut
Aug-26 16:40
- ECB-dated OIS implied rates are up to 2bp lower on the day out in mid-2026 meetings, back to the more dovish levels of the day seen earlier in the session.
- It leaves a rate path at the most dovish since Thursday but with 19bp of cuts priced for still some way off fully pricing a cut from the current 2% deposit rate (the middle of neutral estimates between 1.75-2.25%).
- Headlines have been light today although French consumer confidence disappointed as it fell to its lowest since Oct 2023. In pushback to US President Trump's threat of tariffs for digital taxes, an EU spokesperson says claims its digital rules are censorship are unfounded and that it has the sovereign right to regulate its digital services.
- Euribor futures see gains on the day of up to 5.5 ticks in greens and blues.
- The SONIA/Euribor Dec 2026 spread of 165.5bps is 6.5bp higher from Friday’s close (allowing for yesterday’s UK bank holiday) having last closed higher in the first half of June.
- There’s no scheduled ECBspeak tomorrow. Next up is Bank of Finland’s Rehn speak at an annual Europe Forum event on Thursday at 0900BST, typically an important barometer for the broader Governing Council, before the ECB accounts. Rehn noted on Jackson Hole sidelines that an “insurance cut” isn’t needed with inflation at 2% but that the ECB will maintain full freedom of action at each meeting.
- In ECB position news, outgoing Bank of Portugal head Centeno will attend the rate-setting meeting on Sept 10-11 before new governor Santos’ mandate officially starts Sept 17.
