POWER: French Afternoon Renewable Forecast
Jul-03 14:23
See the latest French renewables forecast for base-load hours for the next seven days from this Afternoon, including the midday change. French wind has been revised lower on 8 July by more than 500MW – which could support power prices on delivery- but solar forecast remains relatively firm and unchanged from this afternoon- keeping peak load gains somewhat limited.
French: Wind for 4-11 July:
- 4 July: 6.53GW (unchanged),
- 5 July: 3.60GW (+205MW),
- 6 July: 5.28GW (unchanged),
- 7 July: 2.48GW (unchanged),
- 8 July: 1.66GW (-530MW),
- 9 July 1.95GW (unchanged),
- 10 July: 1.27GW (unchanged)
- 11 July: 1.46GW
French: Solar for 4-11 July:
- 4 July: 4.04GW (unchanged),
- 5 July: 4.55GW (unchanged),
- 6 July: 2.65GW (unchanged),
- 7 July: 3.29GW (unchanged),
- 8 July: 4.03GW (-130MW),
- 9 July 4GW (-128MW),
- 10 July: 3.92GW (-121MW)
- 11 July: 3.88GW
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Sep'24 5Y Selling Into Post Data Bid
Jun-03 14:21
- -5,000 FVU4 106-07, through 106-07.25 post time bid at 1011:00ET, DV01 $210,000. Contract trades 106-06.5 last (+13) vs. 106-08.5 high.
US DATA: ISM Manufacturing Weaker Than Expected As Prices, New Orders Pull Back
Jun-03 14:18
- The ISM manufacturing index was weaker than expected at 48.7 in May (cons 49.6, prior 49.2).
- The drop in the headline index follows a weak set of regional Fed surveys this month, including last week’s MNI Chicago PMI release.
- The ISM Manufacturing prices paid component fell 3.9 points to 57.0, below consensus forecasts of 59.5 though still indicative of solid price pressures versus earlier in the year (May's prices paid were 4.1 points above the January level). The release notes that “Commodity prices continue to increase, especially fuel, natural gas, aluminum and plastics. Steel is showing signs of weakness”.
- Meanwhile, the employment component printed in expansionary territory for the first time since September 2023 at 51.1. For the purposes of this Friday's nonfarm payrolls release, the uptick could spur some upside reconsiderations for existing forecasts., especially after the S&P manufacturing PMI also signalled stronger employment dynamics.
- New orders fell 3.7 points to 45.4 (vs 49.1 prior), helping the new orders minus inventories metric fall to -2.5 (vs 0.9 prior).
OIL: Brent Slips Below $80 For First Time Since Feb
Jun-03 14:17
Brent slips below $80 for the first time since February, with next support at the 61.8% retracement of the Dec 13-Apr 12 bull cycle ($79.87) breached in quick order. $79.00 then gives way.
- We then get a relief rally for oil as the USD softens in the wake of a disappointing U.S. ISM data, with Brent briefly regaining $79.50.
- Prevailing technical conditions in Brent turn more bearish on the move, with moving average studies already deepening that theme.
- There is now some distance until next support, which comes in at the Feb 5 low.
- A reminder that many had already deemed the outcome of the weekend’s OPEC+ meeting outcome to be bearish and that was before the technical break was factored in.
