RENEWABLES: France Morning Renewable Forecast
Aug-09 07:40
See the latest French renewables forecast for base-load hours for the next seven days from this morning, including the day-on-day change. Wind output in France is forecast to fall on the day on Saturday to 1.38GW. Solar PV output is forecast to rise on the day to 5GW on Saturday according to SpotRenewables.
France: Wind for 10-17 August:
- 10 August: 1.38GW (unchanged),
- 11 August: 3.15GW (unchanged),
- 12 August: 3.2GW (unchanged),
- 13 August: 2.05GW (unchanged),
- 14 August: 3.21GW (+820MW),
- 15 August: 1.8GW (unchanged),
- 16 August: 5.36GW (unchanged)
- 17 August: 3GW
France: Solar for 10-17 August:
- 10 August: 5.01GW (unchanged),
- 11 August: 4.46GW (unchanged),
- 12 August: 4.21GW (unchanged),
- 13 August: 3.72GW (unchanged),
- 14 August: 2.91GW (unchanged),
- 15 August: 4.17GW (unchanged),
- 16 August: 3.43GW (unchanged)
- 17 August: 4.21GW
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NORWAY: Contrasting Momentum Dynamics Underscore Need For July Data
Jul-10 07:37
Norwegian underlying inflation momentum ticked up in June, though Norges Bank will have expected a larger increase given the below-consensus NSA reading.
- Measured as a 3m/3m SAAR using data from Statistics Norway, inflation momentum rose to 3.35% (vs 3.15% prior), up from a low of 2.84% in April.
- In contrast, annualised SA growth rates from 1-month, 3-month and 6-month changes ticked lower on the month (see chart).
- These contrasting dynamics underscore the need to assess the June inflation data alongside the July prints (due in August), in order to better gauge the trends in underlying inflation at the start of H2 2024.
- CPI-ATE inflation has trended below the Norges Bank’s forecasts ahead of every monetary policy meeting in 2024, but that has not stopped the bank from consistently delivering hawkish surprises, with high wage growth and an uncertain krone keeping the stance cautious.
BOE: Pill and Mann both due to speak today (2/2)
Jul-10 07:34
- These appearances follow Haskel's speech on Monday (ahead of his last MPC meeting on 1 August before his non-renewable term ends). He remained on the hawkish side, saying that "I would rather hold rates until there is more certainty that underlying inflationary pressures have subsided sustainably." His comments did not move markets as even if there is a cut in August - he was not expected to vote for it. It was notable, however, that he said that the labour market revisions made earlier this year suggested the UK was "much more indicative of travelling down the steep portion of the pre-pandemic Beveridge curve" which "suggests inflation could be returned to target at a lower interest rate" and that this was one of the "motivations" to change to voting on hold at the March meeting.
- At the time of writing markets price around a 60% probability of a 25bp cut at the August MPC meeting with a cumulative 48bp priced by year-end (and four 25bp cuts fully priced by the August 2025 meeting). If Pill's comments are explicitly one directional today we expect the probability of an August cut could fall to as low as 30%, or up to around 75-80%. However, despite downplaying the importance of individual data points in the June MPC statement / Minutes, next week's CPI / labour market data remain very important.
BOE: Pill and Mann both due to speak today (1/2)
Jul-10 07:31
- Huw Pill will speak at Asia house at 14:30BST today (text to be released at that time here with a Q&A to follow). Pill is generally seen as the most hawkish of the internal members - if he strikes a more dovish tone it would likely be interpreted as a dovish shift for all of the internal members and increase the probability of an August cut. In our view this is the most important UK event of the week.
- Mann will appear on a panel on business investment this afternoon at 16:30BST in Manchester. She has been one of the most hawkish MPC members for some time, but her stance seemed to have softened a little in recent speeches. The panel is not directly covered monetary policy, but she is normally forthright with her views when she is asked (even if it is slightly off topic) and it will be interesting to see whether she is still some way from considering voting for a cut.
