US: Fox-Newsom To Urge Countries Not To Hit California w/Retaliatory Tariffs

Apr-04 11:22

Fox News reporting that "California Gov. Gavin Newsom will announce plans Friday afternoon directing the state to pursue "strategic" relationships with countries announcing retaliatory tariffs against the U.S., urging them to exclude California-made products from those taxes," Sources in the Newsom administration told Fox that the governor is concerned about the impact that retaliatory tariffs will have on the state's vast agricultural sector, as well as the impact on consumers from higher prices of finished goods that could be subject to multiple tariff impositions as part of supply chains that cross the border in the California-Baja region. 

  • Given that California sits as the world's fifth-largest economy, should Newsom be able to reach agreements with foreign gov'ts that are inclined to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US it change the impact of any new levies on the US economy.
  • A carveout of tariffs for Californian products may sound implausible, but it may not prove impossible. Indeed, Austrian Economics Minister Wolfgang Hattmannsdorfer from the conservative Austrian People's Party said on 3 April "We have to hit Republican states and we have to hit Donald Trump's friends, the tech companies," 

Historical bullets

EGB OPTIONS: Expiries for Mar05 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)

Mar-05 11:22
  • EUR/USD: $1.0300-20(E1.7bln), $1.0325-35(E1.1bln), $1.0430-50(E1.3bln), $1.0500-05(E746mln)
  • USD/JPY: Y147.90-00($702mln), Y148.50($505mln), Y149.00($720mln), Y151.00-10($1.0bln), Y151.85-00($1.0bln)
  • EUR/JPY: Y161.75(E1.2bln)
  • GBP/USD: $1.2500-20(Gbp1.1bln)
  • AUD/USD: $0.6350(A$1.3bln)
  • USD/CAD: C$1.4475-80(C$1.2bln), $1.4495-00($1.9bln), C$1.4560($636mln)
  • USD/CNY: Cny7.3265($600mln)

US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (M5) Overbought But Remains Bullish

Mar-05 11:21
  • RES 4: 112-23+1.618 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing
  • RES 3: 112-18  2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • RES 2: 112-13  1.500 proj of the Jan 13 - Feb 7 - Feb 12 price swing 
  • RES 1: 112-01/02 High Mar 4 / 1.382 proj of Jan 13-Feb 7-12 swing
  • PRICE:‌‌ 111-00 @ 11:10 GMT Mar 5 
  • SUP 1: 110-23/110-00   Low Feb 28 / High Feb 7        
  • SUP 2: 109-21   50-day EMA and a key near-term support 
  • SUP 3: 108-21   Low Feb 19 
  • SUP 4: 108-03+ Low Dec 12 and a bear trigger  

Treasury futures traded to a fresh cycle high Tuesday, reinforcing current bullish conditions. The contract has pierced resistance at 111-22+, Dec 3 ‘24 high. A clear break of this level would strengthen a bullish theme and open 112-02 and 112-13, Fibonacci projection points. Note that the daily trend condition is overbought, a pullback would be considered corrective and allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Firm support is at 110-00, the Feb 7 high. 

LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: ADP, Services PMI, ISM Services

Mar-05 11:21
  • US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
  • 5-Mar 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (-1.2%, --)
  • 5-Mar 0815 ADP Employment Change (183k, 140k)
  • 5-Mar 0945 S&P Global US Services PMI (49.7, 49.7)
  • 5-Mar 1000 Factory Orders (-0.9%, 1.7%) Durables (3.1%, 3.1%)
  • 5-Mar 1000 ISM Services Index (52.8, 52.5)
  • 5-Mar 1000 ISM Services Prices Paid (60.4, 60.4)
  • 5-Mar 1400 Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
  • 5-Mar 1130 US Tsy $60B 17W bill auction