RUSSIA: Four More Chinese Banks Stop Accepting Payments in Yuan from Russia
- At the end of March, four Chinese banks stopped accepting payments in yuan from Russia as payments become increasingly complicated for industrial goods, a source from the business community told Izvestia. Moreover, smaller banks are beginning to follow the example of large banks over fears of secondary sanctions from the US.
- China’s exports to Russia slumped in March, the first year-on-year decline since mid-2022, amid growing US threats of reprisal against Beijing if goods aid Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, Bloomberg report. According to Chinese customs data, China’s exports to Russia fell almost 16% in March from a year earlier.
- The Bank of Russia will publish inflation expectations for April as well as its latest macroeconomic survey later today. PPI data for March is on the docket this afternoon (Prior: +19.5% Y/Y).
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P TECHS: (M4) Bullish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 5324.14 3.0% Bollinger Band
- RES 3: 5303.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 5300.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 5257.25 High Mar 8
- PRICE: 5196.25 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: 5163.37 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 5051.40 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 4994.25 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 4921.00 Low Jan 31
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is unchanged and remains bullish. Recent fresh cycle highs reinforce current conditions. Note too that price action continues to highlight the fact that corrections remain shallow. This is an important bullish signal, reflecting positive market sentiment. Support to watch is 5163.37 the 20-day EMA. A clear break of this average would open 5051.40, the 50-day EMA. Sights are on 5300.00 next.
NORWAY: Norges Bank Likely To Revise Q1 Mainland GDP Projection Higher
The Norwegian monthly mainland GDP indicator was stronger than expected in January, at 0.4% M/M (vs 0.0% cons). The Norges Bank's December MPR expected a weaker -0.2% M/M, but this forecast is stale and will be updated at Thursday's March meeting.
- The Norges Bank's -0.3% Q/Q mainland GDP expectation for Q1 2024 is expected to be revised higher somewhat, and the January data strengthens this case.
- However, December's -0.1% M/M was revised to -0.3% M/M, tempering the January beat somewhat.
- The monthly indicator is volatile though, and Statistics Norway notes rolling three-month growth for GDP Mainland Norway was 0.2 percent (vs 0.3%prior).
- Wholesale and retail trade contributed the most to the January print, though household consumption fell 0.4% due to a drop in household car purchases.
GOLD TECHS: Corrective Pullback
- RES 4: $2253.6 - 1.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 3: $2230.1 - 1.50 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 2: $2206.6 - 1.382 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
- RES 1: $2195.2 - High Mar 8
- PRICE: $2148.8 @ 07:17 GMT Mar 18
- SUP 1: $2123.8 - Low Mar 6
- SUP 2: $2112.9/2088.5 - 20-day EMA / High Dec 28
- SUP 3: $2069.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $2016.1 - Low Feb 23
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The yellow metal recently cleared $2135.4, the Dec 4 high, to deliver a fresh all-time cycle high. The break reinforces bullish conditions and signals scope for $2206.6 next, a Fibonacci projection. Short-term conditions are overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this set-up to unwind. Firm support is at $2112.9, the 20-day EMA.
