PERU: Former President Humala Sentenced To 15 Years In Prison
Apr-16 12:51
- Former President Humala was sentenced to 15 years in prison yesterday, after being found guilty of money laundering. Humala, who was president between 2011 and 2016, was accused of laundering illegal campaign contributions from construction firm Odebrecht to finance his 2006 and 2011 presidential bids. He is expected to be detained in the country’s presidential prison, according to Bloomberg, which also houses former Presidents Toledo and Castillo.
- Humala’s wife, and former First Lady, Nadine Heredia was also sentenced to prison in the same case yesterday. However, she has been granted asylum by Brazil and will be allowed to depart to the country.
- No macro data are due today ahead of the long Easter weekend. Despite yesterday’s soft Feb economic activity figures, analysts are maintaining their GDP growth forecasts. Itaú notes the downside risks from global policy uncertainty, but says that an 8th pension fund withdrawal, which Congress is discussing, could total between 2-3% of GDP and provide a transitory boost to consumption. They still expect GDP to grow 2.8% this year.
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US DATA: Empire Mfg Survey Displays Further Signs Of Tariffs Disruption
Mar-17 12:46
The Empire State manufacturing survey had all the hallmarks of tariffs disruption in the first regional Fed mfg survey for March, with orders slipping and input price inflation at its fastest in more than two years.
- The headline manufacturing index slipped -20 (cons -2) in March from +5.7. It’s the lowest since Jan 2024 having been at its strongest reading since a particularly strong 20.2 in Nov and before that Apr 2023.
- New orders played a prominent role in latest weakness, sliding from +11.4 to -14.9, just below the -14.7 in Oct for technically the lowest since Apr 2024 and before that May 2023.
- Remember that it’s a particularly volatile survey more broadly, characterized by a monthly change standard deviation of 17pts - see the chart below for a comparison with the average regional Fed survey and ISM manufacturing.
- That said, the six month ahead measure for general business conditions has tended to be somewhat smoother and this saw another heavy decline to +12.7 for its lowest since May 2023.
- Employment dipped a little further, with -4.1 after -3.6, although that’s only the lowest since December.
- On the price side, prices paid increased further to 44.9 from 40.2 for now the highest since Feb 2023 and this continued to feed through to prices received, at 22.4 after 19.6 for the highest since May 2023.
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 17-23 March
Mar-17 12:46
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MNI's Political Risk team has published its Week Ahead article looking at some of the major political events scheduled across the world over the next seven days. Includes info on US President Donald Trump's upcoming call with Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine ceasefire proposal, the vote in the German Bundestag to reform the debt brake, and the EUCO summit taking place 20-21 March.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Tees Up Call With Vladimir Putin
Mar-17 12:41
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- President Donald Trump will today tour the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts in Washington D.C.
- The Trump administration’s economic policy will come under more scrutiny this week with retail jobs data today and the Federal Open Market Committee holding its second meeting of 2025 on Wednesday.
- Trump administration officials are outwardly maintaining short-term economic shock is not a concern despite surveys showing Americans increasingly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy and tariffs.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he's "not worried about markets" noting that stock market corrections are "healthy" and "normal".
- Opinion of the Democratic Party has dropped to a record low, as the lack of a coherent plan to counter the Trump administration’s aggressive policy moves weighs heavily on the party.
- Trump told reporters he will speak with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday as the White House accelerates its efforts to end the war in Ukraine.
- The United States has renewed offensive military action against Houthi targets in Yemen, killing dozens in weekend strikes.
- White House NSA Mike Waltz said “all options are always on the table” when asked about how the administration intends to deal with Iran.
- Poll of the Day: Voters are open to efforts to tackle inefficiencies in the federal government but are concerned about how Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency is executing those cuts.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
